Two of the league’s better defenses will face off against each other on Monday night as the Memphis Grizzlies host the San Antonio Spurs in what could be a Western Conference playoff preview. While this game will still carry a lot of intrigue with the Spurs’ recent second half struggles, but we’ll miss the Gasol brothers’ matching up given Pau’s broken finger.
Don't miss the hardwood action from the FedExForum at 9:30 p.m. ET on Monday, February 6, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on TNT.
We'll have NBA odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the NBA Monday schedule.
Odds Analysis
How does a team as good as the Spurs lose back-to-back games against the Pelicans and Mavericks after taking at least a nine point lead into the half?
That question is still a bit of a mystery, but perhaps whatever caused the struggles is behind San Antonio after the Spurs topple the Thunder by 14-points on Tuesday. While that win was a welcome sight for Spurs fans, the team did still struggle at the end of the game, with Oklahoma City outscoring San Antonio 29-19 in the fourth quarter.
There’s some reason for concern about the Spurs, but they’ll be okay. They also hit the road again on Monday where they’re 20-5 SU and 15-9-1 ATS.
Memphis, meanwhile, has been a really good opponent at home, going 16-9, though the team is just 13-12 ATS.
Even so, the Grizzlies will welcome a return home after a six game road trip. They have won their last three games both SU and ATS, but were 1-5 ATS in their previous six. Four of those six games were at home.
Key Stat
We’re dealing with two teams that are neck-and-neck defensively with Memphis ranked third in the NBA with 99.5 PPG and a 43.6-percent field goal percentage allowed. San Antonio is a step up in one category allowing 99.2 PPG and a step back in the other with n opponents shooting percentage of 44.5-percent from the floor.
In terms of defensive efficiency, these teams are rather even, too, with the Spurs at No. 3 at 102 and the Grizzlies No. 4 at 102.7. Even when you factor in pace of play, these teams are pretty close. The Spurs have a slightly faced pas averaging 96.7 possessions per game compared the Grizzlies at 95.3. Still, the difference is minimal and both teams rank near the bottom in the NBA in pace and near the top in defensive efficiency.
While the defensive numbers tell a very similar story, the offense tells a much different one.
While the pace provides a similar number of possessions per game for these two teams, the Spurs have been much more efficient on the offensive side of the ball with an offensive efficiency of 110.9 to rank fourth overall while the Grizzlies are on the other side of the spectrum, tied with the 76ers for No. 19 and 104. So, the Spurs are averaging 6.9 more points per 100 possessions and are averaging an extra possession per game.
This is why the Spurs still find themselves amongst the top 10 in scoring with 107.5 PPG. They’re second in field goal percentage and first in shooting beyond the arc.
Revenge Angle
This will be the first time these two teams meet this season, but Memphis will carry some residual angst from the sweep they suffered at the hands of the Spurs in the first round of the 2016 playoffs.
The Spurs handled the Grizzlies with relative ease completely shutting down the team’s offense. Memphis’s own defense did a reasonably good job keeping the Spurs’ offense in check as well, but had no hope scoring an average of 76.3 points in the first three games.
The Grizzlies did bounce back some in Game 4 to score 95 times, but the Spurs offense also broke out with 116. Of course, that game did not feature Mike Conley or Marc Gasol. The former has arguably been the team’s best and most consistent performer this season, scoring 19.2 PPG and averaging 6.2 assists. The later, meanwhile, tops the team in blocks and scoring and has earned his third career All-Star selection.
Free NBA ATS Picks
We have two very good defenses, but only one of these offenses are good enough to overcome the other defense: the Spurs.
Last year’s playoffs painted a pretty clear picture of the difference between these two teams. Look for this to be a closer game than any of the four we saw last April and look for Gasol and Conley to lead the charge to keep this reasonably close, but in the end there’s just not enough firepower in Memphis.
Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are beasts inside the paint. Hopefully, Aldridge’s knee issue is resolved by Monday. If not, this game is a bit closer, but still be weary of putting too much confidence in a Memphis offense the Spurs’ defense absolutely shutdown last yaer even if they’ve been better scoring points lately. Back-to-back 115-point performances only mean so much against Denver and Phoenix.
NBA Odds: Spurs 103, Grizzlies 94
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