The NBA’s top two assists leaders will meet on the court on Thursday when Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder head to Texas to take on James Harden and the Houston Rockets. The two dynamic guards are also amongst the top four in scoring as each lead their respective teams to very strong records. Westbrook was the one with the triple-double the last time these teams met, but it was Houston that won the game.
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Odds Analysis
Houston enters the game with the best record ATS of any team in the NBA at 24-12 and has averaged four points over the spread. Comparatively, the Thunder have been much more in line with expectations, going 18-16-1 ATS with an average of 0.5 points below the spread.
On Monday night, Oklahoma City dropped its second game in its last three, both of the losses coming on the road.
Prior to that, the Thunder had won four straight with three of those wins coming on the road. Their only win in the last three games has come against a sliding Clippers team that looks lost without Blake Griffin on the floor.
The Thunders’ last few games paints the image of a team that’s anything but predictable. We can expect a huge game from Westbrook who’s averaging a triple-double with 30.9 PPG, 10.5 APG and 10.4 RPG and has himself in the MVP picture, but the rest is a crapshoot.
On the other side, Houston is more predictable. The odds makers are starting to catch on that this team is better than it looked at the start of the year and the spread is starting to reflect that. The Rockets have now been favorites in 16 straight games regardless of it being played in Houston or on the road.
Scheduling Situation
The Rockets will have a few days off before taking on the Thunder at home, giving them a chance to rest up. Albeit in a small sample size, but the extra rest hasn’t proven to help Houston this year as they’re 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS with two or three day’s rest. That’s quite a bit off the mark for a team that is still in the single-digits in the loss column here in January and is the best team ATS.
Nevertheless, you have to view the time off as a positive for Houston compared to the Thunder who will take on the Hornets on Wednesday in Charlotte before flying to Houston to take on the Rockets on Thursday night.
For a team so dependent on a single play, rest is vitally important. The Thunder are 2-4 both SU and ATS when playing without a day off in between.
Key Stat
Both Houston and Oklahoma City rank amongst the top-10 in offense based on PPG and in the top-five in field goal percentage.
The similarities don’t end there. Between Harden and Westbrook, you have arguably the two most valuable players to their respective teams in the sport—at least when you consider the supporting cast for each.
While those similarities are striking, there’s one key statistical advantage for Houston with is likely why the Rockets boast the superior record: offensive efficiency.
The Rockets have the second best offense in the sport behind Golden State and efficiency plays a big role as Houston is third in the NBA at 1.119 and is even better at home at 1.138. Meanwhile, the Thunder are in the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency at 1.040 and sits at 1.010 on the road.
Free NBA ATS Picks
Houston beat the Thunder and covered the spread when they journeyed to Oklahoma City at the beginning of December.
In that game, the Rockets grabbed the lead in the first quarter and extended it in the second and third before Oklahoma City roared back to bring it within three before ultimately losing. Houston was favored by a point and a half and covered that spread by the same amount.
When push comes to shove, Westbrook had the better game and is the pick to have the better game, but he’s got no support. The Thunder failed to beat the Rockets even with a 24-point effort from Steven Adams who shot 8-for-9 from the floor. That’s not going to happen again.
On top of that precedent, the Thunder have failed to top 100 points in three of its last four games and will need to score early and often to have a chance against the NBA’s second most prolific offense. Houston gets the win at home.
NBA Odds: Rockets 109, Thunder 99
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