In their last 10 games, the Golden State Warriors have only fallen to one team: the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. The Portland Trail Blazers, on the other hand, have struggled through the first part of the season and come into play on Wednesday having won just two of their last nine. The question isn’t who will win so much as by how much will the Warriors win as the spread figures to be rather large given Golden State will be hosting Portland.
This war on the floor will go down Wednesday, January 4, 2017, 10:30 p.m. ET at Oracle Arena. The game will be televised live on ESPN. We'll have NBA odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the NBA Wednesday schedule.
Odds Analysis
The Warriors are off pace from their record setting year last year, going 29-5 through 34 games compared to their 32-2 record a season ago, but that record is still good enough for the best mark in the NBA.
While Golden State is a great bet to win game in and game out, they’ve been a bad team to take against the spread. The Warriors have dropped three of their last four games ATS and are just 4-8 in their last 12.
As always, the Warriors dominate the opposition with a fast paced style and an NBA leading 117 PPG. Given the pace of play, their opponents have been able to put points on the board, too, averaging 104.3 per contest. With such massive spreads each game given the names on the roster, that 12.7-point margin hasn’t been big enough to make Golden State a good bet to cover.
Similarly, the total tends to over-estimate on Warriors’ games, too. While Golden State puts up points better than anyone, the total is often quite elevated as the under is 19-15 after paying out in 11 of the team’s last 13 games.
As a result, keep a close eye on the odds when released. Given the recent trends, if the odds makers and bettors alike start to value this team more in line with reality than with lofty, unreachable expectations, this is still a loaded squad with three players averaging at least 21.6 PPG.
On the opposite side of this matchup, the Trail Blazers are have won two of their last three games heading into Monday night and have covered the spread in three of their last four contests. Despite that, this is still a team that’s only 14-22 ATS. Meanwhile, the under is 5-1 in the team’s last six.
Even with the under having so much success of late for both teams, this is a dominant offense against a poor defense that may be down its best player. Look for a hefty spread in favor of the home team and a high total.
Injury Report
The Blazers have an extra day off before taking on the NBA’s best team in Oakland and they’ll hope the extra day helps them get Damian Lillard back on the court.
Lillard is one of few players—along with fellow guard C.J McCollum—that can matchup with Golden State in terms of talent and is averaging 27 PPG in his 32 games. He’s now missed four straight games with a left ankle sprain is currently questionably for Wednesday.
Interestingly, Portland is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS since he’s been out. McCollum stepping up is one of the big reasons for that. The fourth year shooting guard out of Lehigh put up 43 in the most recent win against Minnesota.
Despite the record over the last four games, there’s little question that this team is much better with Lillard than without and the combination of Lillard and McCollum at least allows Portland to partially matchup against Golden State on the outside even if it’s quite a sizeable mismatch inside the paint.
Last Meeting
Portland can score well enough, but they’re a terrible team on defense and that led to a 135-point outburst for Golden State in their last meeting. The Warriors absolutely tore through the Blazers, winning by 45-points.
For Portland, Lillard, McCollum and Maurice Harkless were the only three players that managed to reach double-digits in scoring with Harkless scoring 17 and McCollum held to just 10. If the Blazers are without Lillard on Wednesday, that’s a bad sign for the team on the parameter.
The shooting percentage tells a good bit of the story as do the rebounds, both skew heavily in the Warriors’ favor. Golden State shot 58.6-percent from the floor in that last game which isn’t likely to be replicated, but Portland held both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry under 20-points which also isn’t likely to be repeated.
Free NBA ATS Pick
In that last meeting between these teams, the Warriors completely destroyed Portland to easily cover a 14-point spread. Expect another lofty spread and another huge win by Golden State.
Be prepared to give a lot of points to take the Warriors at home. Golden State isn’t quite as unbeatable as they were a season ago, but this is still the best team in the sport against a very pedestrian one. If Lillard is out, this game gets even more lopsided. As it is, even if Lillard plays and McCollum has a better showing than in their last meeting, Portland cannot compete with Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Take the Warriors to cover another huge spread against Portland.
NBA Odds: Golden State 123, Trail Blazers 96
