The Charlotte Hornets wrap up a five games home stand on Wednesday night as they host the Golden State Warriors. For Charlotte, a return home has been huge. They’ve snapped a five game losing streak brought on by a five game road trip and have clinched, if nothing else, a winning home stand. The first few wins of the home stand have been commanding victories, but winning at home and beating Golden State at home can be entirely different things.
Don't miss the hardwood action from Spectrum Center at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 25, 2017. Catch every moment of the game live on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
When the Hornets returned home, they immediate turned what was a five game losing streak into a three game winning streak as of Monday.
Amongst those wins, includes a 113-78 domination of the Raptors who rank second in the Eastern Conference. Of course, the Warriors are a much more difficult opponent than even Toronto, but it still goes to show how quickly Charlotte was able to turn things around simply on some good home cooking.
Overall, it really shouldn’t be too shocking. The Hornets are a very, very good team at home, but a miserable one on the road. They’re 15-7 SU at home and 8-14 SU on the road. Their record ATS is skewed a bit in favor of playing at the Spectrum Center, too. They’re 12-10 ATS at home, but just 9-12-1 on the road.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are the best team in the NBA. They’re not quite on the same record setting pace that gave them the best record in history a season ago, but they’re still very close. They’re won 11 of their last 12 games and 18 of their last 20.
Of course, with great SU record does not always come great success ATS. That’s true of Golden State. In fact, they were amongst the worst records in the NBA ATS, but have covered the spread in five straight games—two coming on the road—heading into Monday.
Key Stat
The Warriors are the best offensive team in basketball, averaging 118 PPG and shooting fifty-percent from the floor to top the NBA. The squad is also the second most efficient shooting team from three-point range and can win the battle against the boards.
All of this adds up to the most efficient offensive team in the sport. According to ESPN, the Warriors boast an offensive efficiency rating of 113.6. The Hornets, meanwhile, aren’t a bad offensive club, sitting in the middle of the pack at 105.9. That pales in comparison to the Warriors, but Golden State was beaten most recently by a team with a lower offensive efficiency in the Memphis Grizzlies. In fact, Memphis is the only team to have topped the Warriors twice.
What made the Grizzlies an interesting matchup, however, is the team’s strong defense. Memphis is third in the NBA in fewest PPG allowed at 99.4 and was ranked even high at the time they played the Warriors.
The Hornets aren’t as strong defensively, but are still in the top third in PPG allowed at 103 and ranked fourth in lowest opponent field goal percentage at 44.2.
Suppressing the Warriors’ offense is essential. Golden State will score. They’ve scored fewer than 100 just twice all year and haven’t scored fewer than 107 since putting up 103 in New York on December 15.
Last Meeting
This is the first meeting between these two teams this year, but a season ago, these two teams met at the start of January and both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry went of for 30-points as they shot 11-for-23 and 12-for-21 from the floor respectively.
As whole, the Warriors shot 51.7-percent on field goals and the two star guards combined to shoot over fifty-percent behind the arc as well.
Granted, this game was in Oakland, but it went similarly to what we can expect now, a year later.
Sure, the Hornets are better at home, but Golden State has an even deeper team with Kevin Durant providing even more offense inside. In the game, the Hornets out rebounded the Warriors despite 15 rebounds from Draymond Green who is also back to help out inside the paint.
Meanwhile, the Hornets will be without Jeremy Lamb who went off for 22-points against Golden State. He’s now missed five straight with the team going 3-2 SU, but 2-3 ATS in his absence.
Free NBA ATS Picks
The Warriors are once again on pace to have an historic season. Just a bit behind their record pace from a season ago, the Warriors still boast the best record in the NBA and have been rolling regardless of whether the game is at home or away. As noted above, they’ve also started to exceed expectations based on the spread after struggling mightily ATS for the better part of the season.
Charlotte is at home, which gives them a chance to keep this game close and, thus, cover the spread. Look for the Hornets to do a respectable job given the task at hand, but the Warriors are too deep of a team.
The Hornets may have a chance to win the battle of the boards and look for a nice game from Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but Durant, Curry and Thompson go off and the Warriors win by double-digits on the road.
NBA Odds: Warriors 116, Hornets 104
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