While Fultz is still somewhat raw, his ceiling is high and Philadelphia will aim to finally turn the corner this season and become competitive. Fultz’s ability to transition to the NBA will be key, and the oddsmakers have created a pair of prop bets pegging how many points and assists they believe he will be able to average during the 2017-18 regular season.
NBA Prop Odds at BookMaker.eu
Number of Markelle Fultz Points Per Game During The 2017-18 Regular Season
Over 12.5 ( -250 )
Under 12.5 ( +180 )
Number of Markelle Fultz Assists Per Game During The 2017-18 Regular Season
Over 2.5 ( -200 )
Under 2.5 ( +155 )
Odds Analysis
Much like the Lonzo Ball prop bets, the “over” has been the much more popular play in these betting totals. Fultz’s average point total has been pegged at 12.5 for his rookie campaign, with the odds already up to -250 for him to finish above that mark. Even at those odds, 92.3 percent of the money is choosing the “over” as the vast majority of bettors believe he will debut with a scoring flurry this year.
The assist “over” choice is up to -200, again with the vast majority of the wagers taking that despite the “under” resulting in the better payoff. Clearly the NBA bettors believe Fultz is going to zoom past both projections as a rookie.
Why Fultz WIll Average More Than 12.5 Points and 2.5 Assists Per Game In 2017-18 Regular Season
Fultz joins an ideal situation, as the 76ers do not have much backcourt depth at all and he should be able to step in immediately and make an impact. Fultz averaged 23.2 points and 5.9 assists per game in his one season at the University of Washington, and has the talent to compete well at the NBA level.
Fultz would have been much more hard-pressed to hit these totals if he went to the Boston Celtics, who originally had the No. 1 pick. They are a contender right now and Fultz would have been in more of a reduced role since the Celtics have some talented guards already.
Instead, the 76ers are likely to let him learn on the job. Even if Fultz doesn’t put up big numbers early on, he should improve as the season goes on. He definitely has the scoring ability to lead the team on certain nights, and while he isn’t a pure pass-first point guard, the 2.5-assists total is low, and anyone with the ball in their hands a lot is liable to rack up a few assists per game just by making simple passes.
Why Fultz WIll Average Less Than 12.5 Points and 2.5 Assists Per Game In 2017-18 Regular Season
The bettors are on the right track, as Fultz will clearly be expected to surpass these totals. However, there is a scenario in which he falls short. The biggest reason would be playing time. Even though Fultz is projected to get heavy minutes from early on, the move to the NBA isn’t simple for everyone.
Fultz was a bit of a late-bloomer who enters the professional world after only one season in college. If he struggles personally but the 76ers otherwise find success, they could relegate him to more of a reserve role as he learns the game.
Philadelphia doesn’t want to sacrifice wins for experience if it is in the playoff chase, so Fultz must prove early on that he is able to handle this level. If he instead becomes a role player in his first season, the scoring and assists numbers could be hard to attain.
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