No NBA Finals has been more hotly debated over the course of the last decade or so than the one we are about to see between the Golden State Warriors (79-18 SU, 54-42-1 ATS) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (65-31 SU, 47-49 ATS). Thursday night's Game 1 might provide some early clues as to which way this series will go.
REBOUNDING SHARES CRITICAL FOR BOTH
When Tristan Thompson entered the starting lineup in place of an injured Kevin Love, he more or less became a personal rebounder for LeBron James. He has had just one game since that point in which he didn't get to double digits in rebound, and he averaged almost a dozen boards per game in the process.
That said, Thompson is going to have to be massive on the glass in this game for Cleveland to have any chance, particularly on the defensive end of the court. Giving the Warriors second and third chances is asking for trouble.
The Warriors are third in the NBA playoffs this year in offensive rebounding percentage at 27.5 percent, a number which we suspect is only going to end up being higher if Marreese Speights plays in this game for the first time since early in the series against Memphis.
When the Grizzlies frustrated the heck out of the Warriors, they did so by keeping the game short and cleaning up the glass on long shots. Thanks to all of the threes which Golden State shoots, it's tough to ultimately track down rebounds. The Cavaliers absolutely must be able to do so, and if they can't, you know that it's time to jump on Golden State in live betting.
LEBRON IN ISO MODE
We don't think that James is going to need to run nearly as much isolation in Game 1 of the NBA Finals as he did against the Hawks in the last round, but if he does end up racking up more than a dozen or so isolation plays, you know that you can safely bet on Golden State in live betting as well.
The Cavaliers averaged 16 isolation plays per game for James, and the bigger the possession was, the more likely they were to go to the iso.
Granted, Kyrie Irving, the team's point guard, didn't play in three of the four games in the Eastern Conference Finals, and that should take some pressure off of LeBron, but we suspect that James is going to feel the pressure to do this all on his own at times.
With Draymond Green, who is rated the second best defender here in these playoffs (behind James, for good measure), we just don't see James finding much success on these isolation plays, especially with both Timofey Mozgov and potentially Andrew Bogut there to slide into the paint when he drives in.
PERIMETER PLAY COULD DECIDE TOTAL
The Warriors certainly score more points when they are moving the ball around the perimeter with ease. They struggled to do that for the whole series against Memphis, which is why their pace was so slow over the course of those six games, and they could struggle again to do the same thing here against Cleveland.
The Cavaliers definitely have some length, as they are playing James at the small forward spot, and if whomever is playing the shooting guard position can figure out how to stick around with Klay Thompson in this game, this could become interesting.
Time and time again, Golden State was able to get good defensive matchups against Houston, and it's not surprising that it averaged 108.6 points per game in that series. Playing stout zone defense might be the key for the Cavaliers, but if they are going man-to-man and doing a lot of chasing when the ball is in the air between passers, not only is Golden State a good bet, but you can bet that the game will end up going over the total as well.
These Warriors are knocking down threes at historic clips, and though Cleveland has an excellent perimeter defense, it hasn't seen anything like this Golden State side in these playoffs.
The NBA betting lines for this Thursday game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Warriors opened up at -6 alongside a total of 202.5. Live wagering during commercials offers adjusted moneylines, totals and spreads. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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