Last season was a disaster for the Thunder, missing out on the playoffs and on a full season of Kevin Durant. There’s hope both those scenarios will change this season. Durant has recovered from the foot problem that cost him most of the season, there’s depth behind the big two and a new coach in Billy Donovan to add a fresh perspective. The Spurs are the Spurs. But now they have LaMarcus Aldridge to carry the torch.
LOOK AHEAD
The Spurs have a tough opening to the new season as coach Gregg Popovich works on implementing newcomer Aldridge into the mix with his big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. San Antonio created plenty of buzz around the league bringing in the former Portland star along with David West, to work with the experienced veterans on the roster.
Developing chemistry takes time and the improvements were noticeable as the preseason wore down, but like in any sport, the games that count are much different. So the Spurs may have caught a break with the schedule, playing four of their first five on the road. Any player will tell you going on the road does wonders for team bonding. Popovich will get an early chance to work on his rotations when the club travels east for three games in four nights starting Sunday. That’s likely a good time to stay away from the Spurs with the aging core not likely to get major minutes in a brutal stretch of games so early in the year. It will be a chance to play Aldridge on his props as he is likely to be the focal point of the team’s offense.
INJURIES
For the previous five years, Durant’s seasons were easy to predict. He’d be in the race for the scoring title and the MVP award, he’d be among the league leaders in minutes and his Thunder would be in the title hunt. Those things will likely be true this season, but there are lingering questions about the foot ailment that cost him all but 27 games last season. Though he played five preseason games averaging 18 points, the questions will come, and until Durant plays well into the season, they’ll continue to come. The season has yet to start and already Durant is tired of answering the questions.
KEY MATCHUP
Oklahoma City has won 71 percent of its games with Durant and Russell Westbrook the last five years. The only team with a better record in that span is the Spurs. But without those stars, OKC’s win percentage drops to 57 percent. When Westbrook got hurt in the 2013 playoffs, the Thunder lost in five games in the second round. Without Durant for heavy stretches last season, the Thunder missed the playoffs entirely. During the other three seasons they reached at least the conference final and even went to the NBA Finals in 2012. We know the Thunder is a championship contender when both are healthy, and a borderline playoff team when at least one isn’t. Durant will be blanketed by Kawhi Leonard in this matchup, opening up opportunities for Westbrook, and he’ll likely take advantage against an aging Spurs backcourt.
ODDS AND PREDICTION
There’s plenty of hype surrounding the Thunder heading into the season. With Durant and Serge Ibaka back healthy, OKC is a trendy pick in the West after being left out of the playoff picture last season. The Thunder has added depth as well with Andre Roberson and Steven Adams productive complementary pieces, and Enes Kanter plugging up the middle. The key to their season, obviously, is the health of Durant and Westbrook. Donovan takes over as coach and faces the challenge of coming from the college ranks – a jump few have made successfully. But if his two superstars produce for a full season – or close to it – the Thunder should be in the thick of the race. Expect San Antonio to be there as well. As we saw from the Spurs last season, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. The torch is being passed from the big three to Leonard and Aldridge, and Pop is a master at handling his roster. But the Thunder has more to prove in the opener and playing at home gives them an edge.
Oklahoma City 101, San Antonio 98
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