The 2015 Tour de France is 17 stages old, and we are heading down the stretch to the finish line this coming weekend.
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CURRENT STANDINGS (through Stage 16)
Christopher Froome: 64:47:16
Nairo Quintana: +3:10
Tejay Van Garderen: +3:32
Alejandro Valverde: +4:02
Alberto Contador: +4:23
Geraint Thomas: +5:32
Robert Gesink: +6:23
Vincenzo Nibali: +7:49
Bauke Mollema: +8:53
Warren Barguil: +11:03
Considering the fact that the margin is already over three minutes large between Froome and the rest of the pack, there's a great chance if he stays on his bike, he is going to win the Tour de France. That said, we have seen crazier things happen in this event, and there are still some wicked mountain racing to go, particularly on Wednesday and Thursday in which substantial time could be made up.
The cutoff in terms of men who could reasonable catch Froome probably stops at Contador. The veteran of the Tour de France has been here and done this time and time again, and he knows what it takes in the mountains these next few days to be able to cut down a ton of time in a hurry from a leader who might run into troubles.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Christopher Froome: -1500
Nairo Quintana: +600
Alberto Contador: +3300
Tejay Van Garderen: +6600
Alejandro Valverde: +10000
Vincenzo Nibali: +15000
Geraint Thomas: +20000
Joaquim Rodriguez: +50000
Field (Any Other Rider): +10000
Certainly, Froome is the massive favorite at this point, and the fact that he is also comfortably King of the Mountains is going to help him in these dying stages. Quintana is the only other man being given any chance whatsoever to cut down his gap, but if that was going to happen, it would have to happen in the next few days.
Again, it is worth mentioning that we have seen Contador erase leads of over 10 minutes in his career in the Tour de France, and though he hasn't won this event since 2010 (a title he was stripped of; Contador last legally won the Tour de France in 2009), he can still be a contender, even at this late stage of his career.
DOPING ALLEGATIONS COULD ULTIMATELY PAY BIG DIVIDENDS FOR BIG UNDERDOGS
It doesn't take a genius to know that cycling is a dirty sport. Whether you're talking about Contador, Lance Armstrong or any of a number of others, there are men who will cheat in this sport with performance enhancing drugs.
Already, we have seen a number of riders dropping from this race. Ivan Basso has withdrawn thanks to his bout with cancer. Luca Paolini tested positive for cocaine and was sent home.
Froome hasn't been found guilty of anything at this point, but allegations have surfaced that he could be involved with drugs during this Tour de France.
To his and his team's credit, Froome did release the data from his most recent test during one of the off days of this event, a test which came back clean.
That said, we have seen these issues before in the Tour de France. In order to get Froome knocked out of the race, there would have to be evidence which surfaces before the end of the Tour. The fact that we are so close to the finish line in Paris makes us believe that Froome is out of the woods at this point, but remember too, that he crashed out of the Tour de France last year as well.
Anything can happen in this crazy sport, and taking the huge prices on some of the underdogs might just end up paying off in the long run.
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