La La Land is the overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture at the 89th Academy Awards as well as a host of other awards. La La Land has a staggering 14 nominations this year, 6 more than the nearest film, and looks set to also boast the winner for Best Actress and Best Director too. However, the Academy has surprised us before and nothing is certain until the envelope is opened and the winner is announced.
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Odds to win Best Picture
Arrival +10000 La La Land -850
Fences +5000 Lion +5000
Hacksaw Ridge +5000 Manchester by the Sea +1400
Hell or High Water +10000 Moonlight +500
Hidden Figures +1200
La La Land has been the favorite to win Best Picture since before the official nominees were announced. The film about an aspiring actress and a jazz pianist coming together to find love and success in the City of Angels has resonated well with the Academy and has also won a host of other awards in the run-up to the awards ceremony on February 26, 2017.
A big predictor of how a film will perform with the Academy is how well it does among the various guild awards in the month prior to the grand tamale. La La Land has shone brighter than the rest among these films, winning at the Producers Guild Awards and the Directors Guild Awards. The only one of the big three it didn’t win was the Screen Actors Guild Award, but that’s because the criteria for that award are a little different.
If you’re looking to go against the grain, indie favorite Moonlight is a great pick and Hidden Figures might give La La Land a run for its money. Both films are receiving rave reviews and in the present political environment, it wouldn’t be a shock to see a more ethnically diverse film win as a thumb in the eye for the 45th President.
Odds to win Best Actor
Casey Affleck -180 Viggo Mortensen +10000
Andrew Garfield +3300 Denzel Washington +120
Ryan Gosling +1400
This has always been a two-man race. Gosling doesn’t have a chance although his odds might make one think he does and Garfield and Mortensen are also also-rans.
Affleck won the Critics’ Choice Award and the BAFTAs and has emerged as the favorite, but the biggest predictor for success historically is the SAG Awards. 18 of the last 22 Best Actor winners had won the SAG Best Actor Award before their eventual Academy Award victory and Washington picked up that honor last month.
Washington is the play here even though the odds have gone against him somewhat. He originally opened as a slight +110 favorite to Affleck’s +150 odds, but the SAG Award is such a tremendous predictor of success that Washington should see a victory.
Odds to win Best Actress
Isabella Huppert +1000 Emma Stone -600
Ruth Negga +4000 Meryl Streep +5000
Natalie Portman +400
There has been a dramatic shift in Best Actress odds. Portman and Stone essentially opened as co-favorites, but the action has been one-sided on Stone. That’s because while Portman won the Critics’ Choice Movie Award for her role in Jackie, Stone won both the SAG Award and at the BAFTAs.
However, this is one of the few categories where a longshot has a legitimate chance and Isabelle Huppert should not be overlooked. She wasn’t nominated for either the SAG Award or the BAFTAs, but has been gaining steam since her Golden Globes win at the beginning of January. At +1000, the odds on her are very tempting and worth a small play.
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