The land of Cheese will be up for grabs in next round of primaries, and we here at BookMaker.eu are here to break it all down from a wagering perspective with candidates from both parties looking to put another feather in their cap.
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
The mudslinging typically present during an election cycle has gone well past the norm and has been reduced to vicious back and forth attacks between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Lately, the vitriol has focused around a Ted Cruz Super PAC placing a half-naked picture of Trump’s wife, Melania, in an attack ad and Trump responded by criticizing the attractiveness of Cruz’s wife, Heidi, through a retweet on Twitter.
At this point, you’d like to say you can’t imagine it getting any worse, but the Republican Party nomination this year has continually lowered the bar.
Next Tuesday, Wisconsin Republicans will go to the polls to choose if they want Trump, Cruz, or John Kasich. Wisconsin is a winner take most state, so the candidate with the most votes will get a larger share of delegates than he would under the usual rules.
Currently, BookMaker.eu has Ted Cruz as a -190 betting favorite to win the Wisconsin Republican Primary with the field option of either Trump or Kasich winning the state lined as a +153 underdog. The oddsmakers may have tilted the line after Trump’s attack on Heidi Cruz, since according to the most recent Wisconsin poll, Trump is two percent ahead of Kasich and four percent ahead of Cruz.
Trump has been like Teflon this whole process though and it may be worth placing a bet on the field at +153 odds in Wisconsin due to the latest poll.
If new polling comes out that suggests the latest Trump attack did have an effect in Wisconsin, then the smart play would be to bet against Trump to win the Republican Party nomination.
Trump is listed at -255 to be the Republican Party nominee and the field winning the nomination is at +205. Betting on the field at over two to one odds if his polling numbers dip even a bit would be shrewd since Trump needs to win a majority of delegates because he would likely lose in a brokered convention.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
The Democratic nomination has been cordial compared to its counterpart as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are campaigning along typical boundaries. Sanders made shockwaves by winning Washington, Hawaii and Alaska all by huge margins last week, but in the grand scheme of things only managed to pick up 35 delegates on Hillary.
Sanders needs to win 73 percent of the remaining delegates at this point in order to beat Hillary and barring scandal or the greatest surge we’ve ever seen it just won’t happen.
Sanders will probably win slight majorities in the remainder of states yet to vote, but he was walloped so thoroughly by Clinton early on that Hillary is almost a lock to win. You can bet on Hillary to win the Democratic nomination at -1250 at BookMaker and that wager may as well be a CD.
Bernie Sanders is a -177 favorite to win the state of Wisconsin, while Hillary represents the field at +143 odds. A bet on Hillary is a fantastic bet at this point. The line is likely higher due to the shock result in Michigan earlier this month where Bernie won despite Hillary being massively favored in the polls and on the betting line.
The Michigan result seems to be an anomaly though and the latest Wisconsin poll shows Hillary ahead by six percentage points over Bernie. FiveThirtyEight also projects Clinton to win by over 12 percent of the vote and puts her odds at winning Wisconsin at 83 percent.
THE BETS TO MAKE
4* – The Field - Hillary Clinton - to win the Wisconsin Democratic Primary
2* – Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party nomination
1* – The Field - Donald Trump or John Kasich - to win the Wisconsin Republican Primary
One to watch: The Field - John Kasich or Donald Trump - to win the Republican Party nomination
Voting in the Wisconsin Primaries takes place on Tuesday, April 5, 2016. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
