Michigan was thought to be squarely in Hillary Clinton’s bag a few weeks ago, but Donald Trump’s resurging fortunes have pushed the state closer and closer to the swing state boundary. Although Clinton is still considered a large favorite to win the state, Trump has a fighting chance and recently made a big ad buy in the state. A Trump win here would be huge and could presage a Trump victory in the national election.
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Which Party Will Win the General Election Michigan Electoral College Vote?
Democratic Party -485
Republican Party +360
POLLING DATA
The good news for Clinton is that although Trump has been able to cut into her lead, there are still no polls that show Trump ahead in the state. Trump’s vote share in the state seems to top out at 44 percent and that’s with little support for Gary Johnson. That means that many Republican voters have returned home to show their support for Trump as Election Day has drawn near, but it also means that he doesn’t have much room left for growth.
Clinton’s narrowest lead in the state has her up by two points and that has caused her to push money into the state to buy ad space. That alone is a victory for Trump as money spent here can’t be spent in a more traditional swing state and divides Clinton’s resources.
THE GROUND GAME
Although Trump has eschewed big data in his campaign, the Republican National Committee feels confident about its chances in Michigan and other states. The RNC’s political director, Chris Carr, has said that the Republicans have organized better in swing states than they did in the 2012 election and have canvassed two million more houses than they had at this point last cycle.
Clinton’s use of big data is going to be what looms large. The Democrats are using proprietary software to try to maximize their support and that has proven fruitful among Hispanic voters. However, Clinton is lagging behind in support from African Americans and will need to pull in more support from this group.
MICHIGAN’S VOTING HISTORY
In the 1970s and 1980s, Michigan was a reliable GOP state, voting for the Republican candidate in every election, including Gerald Ford in 1976. However, Michigan has become progressively more blue as the years have passed.
Barack Obama won the state by a whopping 16.4 percent in 2008 and 9.5 percent in 2012 even though challenger Mitt Romney grew up in Michigan. He was able to get out the inner-city vote far better than Democrats in the past and that fueled his large victory.
A lot of that has to do with the state’s economic fortunes. As companies left Michigan, more and more people followed suit, particularly the non-college educated white citizens that make up the crux of Trump’s support. The white flight out of big cities like Detroit and Flint, meant that African-Americans and Hispanics made up an increasingly larger percentage of the population. Per the 2015 Census, non-whites made up 21.4 percent of the population.
TRUMP’S APPEAL
Trump’s campaign promises to repeal NAFTA and start taxing Chinese goods has made him extremely popular in Rust Belt states like Michigan. This message has struck a chord with voters in the state and he has stopped here multiple times in an effort to turn this state red for the first time since 1988. These stops were once derided as wasteful since he was perceived to have little chance to win the state, but now look prescient.
THE BET
Although Trump has cut into her lead, Clinton should still win the state by a few percentage points. Playing her at this price is a decent bet, but Trump’s national numbers have been slowly rising so waiting a day or two longer to bet on Clinton will get you a better price.
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