Like much of the south, North Carolina has been a stronghold for the GOP for the better part of the last 50 years. Over that timeframe, North Carolina has only backed a Democratic candidate in the presidential election twice, in 1976 and in 2008. However, the demographics have shifted significantly over the last decade and Hillary Clinton believes that she will be able to win the state.
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Which Party Will Win the General Election North Carolina Electoral College Vote?
Democratic Party -132
Republican Party +110
WHAT HAS CHANGED WITH NORTH CAROLINA?
There’s two reasons that Democrats think that North Carolina is susceptible to flip from red to blue. The first is a common one, the state’s burgeoning population of Hispanics. There has been a large Hispanic influx into The Tarheel State since 2000 and Republican vote shares have dropped accordingly. Barack Obama won the state by .3 percent back in 2008, but lost by two points in 2012. Still, it highlighted how quickly North Carolina has changed from a Republican safe state to a swing state.
The other reason that Democrats are hopeful is the state’s continued evolution in terms of college-educated citizens. 27.8 percent of people 25 years or older have at least a Bachelor’s Degree in North Carolina and that number puts it ahead of most of the other southern states. Studies have tied education level to party identification and found that the more educated a voter is, the more likely he or she is to be registered as a Democrat.
POLITICAL GAMESMANSHIP
Republicans have tried to stymie the tide through the legislature, but were dealt a blow earlier this summer when a federal appeals court ruled that North Carolina laws were trying to “target African-Americans with almost surgical precision” in order to depress the numbers of African-Americans coming to the polls.
While that law was repealed, the fact that Republicans in the North Carolina legislature in the first place tells you all you need to know. Over time, North Carolina is going to get more blue, the only questions are when and how by much.
EARLY VOTING
The early voting numbers may look good for Democrats at first glance. Over 200,000 more registered Democrats have gone to the polls than Republicans and that equates to around a 13.4 percent advantage.
However, those numbers are far off the 2012 pace when almost 300,000 Democrats had gone to the polls at this point and the party had a 17.9 percent advantage on the GOP. There numbers are still positive for the Democrats for sure, but they are going to have to fight to win the state.
A PRESIDENTIAL PUSH
President Obama has headed down to North Carolina along with First Lady Michelle Obama in a push to get out the vote this week. North Carolina has a large percentage of African-American voters, but Clinton has struggled to mobilize them as effectively as she has Hispanic voters. She is hoping that the First Family will make an appeal that hits the mark and drives people to the voting booths.
If Clinton is unable to connect with African-American voters, she stands a very good chance of losing here. Trump has made a big push and recently purchased a large chunk of ad space in the state. It will be close regardless, but if Clinton wins she can really cut into Trump’s chances of becoming the next POTUS.
THE BET
North Carolina may end up being the state that has the narrowest margin of victory and even 538 gives Clinton just a 51.2 percent chance of winning. However, because of the large number of people she can potentially mobilize, Clinton is a better bet than Trump to win at this price.
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