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Huge delegate bounties are up for grabs in the next couple weeks with New York set to go to the polls in two weeks and we’re here to break it all down from a wagering perspective.
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FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump’s odds to win the Republican nomination have taken a major hit in the last week and although he still holds the status of frontrunner, the chances of him reaching the 1237 delegates he needs before the Republican Convention in Cleveland is slimming.
Just a week ago, Trump was over a -200 favorite to win the Republican nomination but his odds came tumbling down and he was a slight underdog to be the Republican candidate before betting lines closed prior to the Wisconsin vote.
Ted Cruz notched a humongous win in Wisconsin as a big betting favorite, up to -800 by the time the line went off the board, and it looks like he will outperform all expectations. With over 50 percent of the vote in Wisconsin in late Tuesday night, Cruz was already declared the winner and had a 20 point lead on Trump. Early estimates suggest that Cruz will win 36 of Wisconsin’s 42 delegates and his odds as a four to one underdog to win the Republican nomination will surely fall after this result.
John Kasich was hopeful to get at least three delegates from Wisconsin due to the unique delegate allocation rules of the state, but will come away empty-handed.
The Badger State gives out 18 of their 42 delegates in the Republican Primary to the winner of the state and then each of their eight congressional districts dole out three delegates to whichever candidate wins the district. Kasich’s campaign thought it had a shot in some of the bigger cities but that turned out not to be the case and now he turns his attention to Pennsylvania and New England where he is expected to be the primary competition to Donald Trump.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Although the odds for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party nomination fell from -1200 to -800 before the Wisconsin Democratic Primary, Clinton still enjoys an almost insurmountable lead to win the Democratic nomination.
She is expected to dominate the two biggest prizes in April in New York and Pennsylvania and barring a massive sea change in the electorate should comfortably win the Democratic nomination even though she lost the state of Wisconsin.
Since the Democratic Party distributes all of its delegates in each state by percentage of the vote, Bernie Sanders needs to win the remaining states up for grabs by 15 to 20 percentage points in order to catch Clinton. Hillary ran up a huge lead thanks to her support among African Americans in southern states and in the South she was often winning 70 to 80 percent of the vote and running up huge margins.
Clinton also holds a gigantic lead in superdelegates and although they’re free to change their vote at any time before the Democratic Convention, it’s unlikely she would lose most of them as she is seen to have a more center leaning campaign and is more electable than Sanders is.
Over the rest of the month, Hillary is likely to be a large betting favorite in New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland; FiveThirtyEight makes her as at least a 96 percent favorite in each of those three states.
These numbers always shift as more polling data becomes available, but the overall message holds true. Clinton is very likely to win those three states and make it even more difficult for Sanders to win the nomination.
Sanders is considered the favorite to win Connecticut and Rhode Island but those two states combined don’t add up to the same number of total delegates that Maryland is worth and pale in comparison to New York and Pennsylvania.
THE BETS TO MAKE
Political Odds: 3* Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic Party at -800 or lower
Voting in the New York Primaries takes place on Tuesday, April 19, 2016 and will be followed by primaries in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware the week after. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
