Now we turn our attention to the upcoming primaries in the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and New York and we here at BookMaker.eu are here to break it all down from a wagering perspective.
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
For the first time in almost two months, Donald Trump is no longer listed as the odds on favorite to win the Republican nomination. Trump is listed as a +106 underdog to win the nomination now and his odds at holding on seem to be growing narrower by the day.
There is a silver lining to his current odds in that he is considered a favorite to win every state over the next two weeks, including his delegate rich home state of New York. The Donald is a massive -3290 favorite to win the New York Republican Primary and FiveThirtyEight’s primary forecast predicts he will garner 53.1 percent of the vote in the Empire State.
Trump is also a big favorite in the other states with similar demographics to New York. He’s listed as a -685 favorite to win the Rhode Island Republican Primary and a -600 favorite to win the Connecticut Republican Primary.
Trump will need to rack up huge delegate numbers over these next two weeks to reestablish himself as the odds on favorite to win the Republican nomination, especially since most of the states going to the polls in May and June have populations that favor either Ted Cruz or John Kasich more than Trump.
If Ted Cruz or John Kasich have hopes of pulling off an upset, it will likely happen in either Maryland or Pennsylvania. In Maryland, the odds are +285 for Trump to lose and Kasich is the more likely of the two to beat Trump. The latest Washington Post poll had Trump with a 10 point lead on Kasich, and a 19 point lead on Cruz, but in other primaries we saw Trump’s numbers stagnate in the run up to the primary and Kasich will likely spend a lot of his time and money here over the next two weeks.
Cruz has made up ground on Trump in the last few rounds of polls in Pennsylvania but there is a wide disparity over just how far back he is. Polls released in the last two weeks have Cruz behind by anywhere from 28 to eight percentage points. The betting line on Trump to lose Pennsylvania is +310 but with such a difference in polling results it may be best to wait a little bit before placing a bet on this primary.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Bernie Sanders won yet another state this weekend, but his legitimacy as a candidate faces a crucial test over the next two weeks of primaries. He’s currently an underdog in every state not named Rhode Island, where he is a -200 favorite to win, and a round of Hillary victories will likely doom his candidacy.
Clinton saw her odds to win the Democratic Party nomination increasingly rise even after Bernie won Wisconsin and Wyoming and she now sits as a -1150 favorite to win the nomination due to some of the early polls for the upcoming primaries.
Hillary is a sizeable favorite to win the New York Democratic Primary at -725 odds and although it’s hard to bet on that much chalk, it’s a great bet at this stage. With a little over a week until the primary, FiveThirtyEight puts Hillary’s chances to win New York at 96 percent and the two polls released in the past week have her with 16 to 18 percentage point leads over Bernie.
Bernie has proven to be a strong closer, but this large of a lead this late in the game is generally impossible to overcome.
In the other upcoming primaries, Hillary is a -361 favorite in Connecticut, a -825 favorite in Delaware, a -1600 favorite in Maryland and -600 favorite in Pennsylvania. If she can win most of these primaries or prevent being blown out by double digit percentage points in any state, the chances of Bernie to be the Democratic Party candidate will fall precipitously.
These next two weeks will likely make or break Bernie.
Political Odds: Hillary Clinton to win the New York Democratic Primary and Donald Trump to lose the Maryland Republican Primary
Voting in the New York Primaries takes place on Tuesday, April 19, 2016 and will be followed by primaries in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware the week after. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
