We are now just a week away from the upcoming primaries in the Mid-Atlantic, New England, and New York and we here at BookMaker.eu are here to break it all down from a wagering perspective.
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
The latest round of polling hypothetical presidential match-ups has been conducted and the results continue to look bleak for the Republican Party. In the last 10 polls of a hypothetical match-up between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the closest that Trump has been to Clinton is four percentage points and the average poll puts Clinton ahead by almost nine percentage points.
That’s why even though Trump is once again the favorite to win the Republican nomination, at -120 odds, he’s a steep underdog when it comes to gaining the presidency at +685 odds. He has shown no chance in being able to gain traction with voters outside of his stern base and Trump’s nomination would lead to the most polarizing election in at least four decades.
Trump’s odds to win the New York Republican Primary have ballooned, and because of it, he is now listed as a -8000 favorite to win the Empire State. Just a week ago, Trump was around -2000, but strong polls in his home state have shown little sign of wavering in their support of Trump.
According to prediction site FiveThirtyEight, Trump has greater than a 99 percent chance to win New York and is projected to top both John Kasich and Ted Cruz in polling by 30 points.
Trump is at least a -1000 favorite in four of the five other states going to the polls to choose the Republican Party nominee a week after the New York Primary with the only holdout state being Maryland. There will be more polling in the week to come so each candidate can decide how much time to put into the state, but the demographics say that John Kasich has a shot to knock off Trump in the Old Line State and is worth a flyer bet at +290 odds for Trump not to win Maryland.
Even if Kasich beats Trump in Maryland though, that doesn’t make him a candidate with a real chance to win the nomination and he largely remains in the race just to thwart Trump. Kasich’s odds to win the nomination, 10-1, and the presidency, 40-1, are fairy tale bets and in a month’s time you’ll probably be able to place both bets at double the price.
Ted Cruz is the one Republican that can prevent Trump from winning the nomination and although he is loathed in Washington by many of his peers, he has become a rallying point as the last chance to stop Trump from winning the Republican nomination. At +182 odds to win the nomination, he isn’t a value bet, but after Trump performs well it may be worth buying into Cruz on the readjusted line once the prices are posted.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
In two weeks, it’s unlikely that the media will still be talking up Bernie Sanders as a legitimate challenger to Hillary Clinton, and if she performs anywhere close to her poll numbers, it’s inevitable that she will win the Democratic Party nomination barring further scandal or arrest.
Clinton is a -1350 favorite to be the Democratic nominee and those odds will rise even further if she dominates in New York as expected. There have been seven different polls released for New York in the past week and every single one has placed Clinton with a double digit lead over Bernie.
Although Sanders will likely make up a little bit of that ground, it’s almost unfathomable to think he can pull off an upset. Clinton to win New York at -1251 is a solid bet.
Also boding well for Clinton are her poll numbers in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware. It’s highly improbable Sanders can catch her in any state.
She is a -1200 favorite in Delaware, a -1550 favorite in Maryland, and a -875 favorite in Pennsylvania. The gambling odds only seem to give Sanders a chance in two states. In Connecticut, Clinton is only a -380 favorite and it’s plausible that Sanders can catch her there with the homogenous nature of the state. In Rhode Island, Sanders is a -175 favorite and he should likely be a bigger favorite there.
Clinton is -300 to win the presidency and although those usually aren’t good bets in presidential campaigns, this one is. This will likely be a realignment election with a fissure in the Republican Party and she may romp on Election Day if she can get past Sanders first.
Voting in the New York Primaries takes place on Tuesday, April 19, 2016 and will be followed by primaries in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware the week after.
Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
