The New York Primaries are Tuesday and they will have big implications for who will be the Democratic and Republican candidates in 2016. Both the Democrats and Republicans have a clear favorite that will get a massive boost to their chances to be their party’s nominee. The only question at this point is how big of a boost it will be.
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump is a huge betting favorite to win the state of New York on Tuesday and prediction site FiveThirtyEight has him as a 99 plus percent favorite to win the state. Accordingly, BookMaker lists Trump as a -17500 favorite to win the Empire State and the over/under for his vote percentage is 53.5 percent.
FiveThirtyEight has Trump’s projected vote percentage in New York at 53.8 percent according to its polls-plus forecast and 54.6 percent according to its polls-only forecast. Bettors don’t feel the same way as FiveThirtyEight has Trump a +122 underdog to reach 53.5 percent of the vote in New York.
Since New York is a winner take most state, Trump should be able to get a large majority of New York’s delegates as long as he breaks the 50 percent mark. Of New York’s 95 delegates, Trump is likely to pick up at least 70 and pick up a big chunk of what he needs left to get to 1237 delegates before the Republican Convention.
Also, New York may be the state where Trump doesn’t slightly underperform his voting projections on decision day. This has haunted him throughout the campaign as late deciders are much more likely to choose a candidate other than Trump. If he can meet or exceed his projections, a bet on him to win the Republican nomination at -165 odds is a pretty good one heading into the last week of April.
Ted Cruz doesn’t appear likely to get greater than 20 percent of the vote in New York and he will have some ground to make up in the last two months of the election. His general election chances were further hurt last week when it re-emerged that he had tried to ban sex toys when he was the Texas Solicitor General.
Cruz is now up to -3000 not to be the next US president and after that news it’s unlikely he’d be able to make any inroads with women if he was the Republican nominee. As of now, Cruz is a +228 underdog to be the Republican nominee but he’ll need to have great performances in May and June to get it to a brokered convention where he’d stand a chance.
John Kasich doesn’t have much of a chance to win the Republican nomination and he currently sits at +1350 odds to represent the party in the general election. He did make news about a week ago though, when he stated that he thinks the Monday after Super Bowl Sunday should be a national holiday. Kasich noted the absolute lack of productivity in the workplace the day after because of America’s reverence of the Super Bowl and even though it may be a cheap ploy to gain votes, it’s a very popular idea that makes sense.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Bernie Sanders has the momentum but it’s about to come to a screeching halt in New York. Shockingly, even though Hillary Clinton is given a 99 percent chance to win the New York Democratic Primary and is expected to beat Sanders by 15 percentage points, she's only a -1900 favorite to win the state on Tuesday.
Much of this is because of the shocking result in Michigan a month ago when Sanders won the state despite being down 16 points in the polls the day of the primary, and the other part is likely the cognitive dissonance when it comes to Sanders’ chances.
Some of Sanders’ supporters and members of the media have their heads in the clouds when it comes to his chances to win the Democratic nomination. Clinton is a bigger favorite than she was a week ago at -1650 to win the right to represent the Democratic Party in November, but she still isn’t near the favorite she should be.
As long as she wins New York by anywhere close to what she’s expected, Sanders’ slim chances will evaporate and the only way he’ll be able to win the nomination is if she gets indicted or something equally as shocking happens.
Clinton is a -305 favorite to win the presidency and although a lot can happen between now and November, that looks like a solid bet. She is ahead of both Trump and Cruz in general election polls and her margin would likely only narrow slightly before November.
Political Odds at BookMaker.eu
Voting in the New York Primaries takes place on Tuesday, April 19, 2016 and will be followed by primaries in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware the week after. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
