The New York Primaries stayed consistent with the polling and now Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have increased their likelihood of representing their respective parties in November.
How likely is it that this is the match-up we see for the presidential election? Check below for how New York affected each party’s nomination odds.
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FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump was hoping to get over 50 percent of the vote on Tuesday and he not only reached that threshold but blew past it with over 60 percent of the vote. This total led to Trump getting a massive share of the delegates up for grabs in New York and with almost all the votes counted he’ll pick up at least 89 of the 95 delegates the Empire State has to offer.
This great result led to a pretty decent shift in Trump’s odds to win the Republican nomination. Trump was at -160 to win the nomination prior to New York and now sits as a -250 favorite. He still has a long way to go to get to the 1237 delegates needed to avoid a brokered convention, but if he gets close enough he will likely win anyway through backroom deals with delegates for candidates who have long dropped out of the race.
Trump’s odds may not be taking into account the likelihood that he sweeps Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island next week. The Donald is an overwhelming favorite in each of these states with less than a week before Republican voters make their decision. Of the states with the largest delegate counts, Trump is a -3300 favorite to win Pennsylvania, a -1750 favorite to win Maryland, and a -4000 favorite to win Connecticut.
If Trump can get at least 100 of the 172 delegates up for grabs in these states, he’ll be on pace to get the delegates he needs to seize the Republican Party nomination.
Ted Cruz doesn’t have much of a chance to win this next group of states, but any delegates he can pick off only helps his case to become the Republican nominee. He has a great chance to win most, if not all, the states up for grabs in May. He has polled well in the Midwest, the South, and the West and the five states holding their Republican primaries in May fall into this group.
Cruz is currently listed at +280 to become the nominee but he’ll need to have Trump underperform in the Republican Primaries held next week to have any kind of chance.
John Kasich is only nominally in the race at this point. He is listed as a +1650 underdog to win the Republican Party nomination but that isn’t near enough. The only state he’s won is his home state of Ohio and barring something completely out of left field that’s all he’ll win. This race is now down to just Cruz and Trump.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton needed a big win in New York to blunt the naysayers who thought Bernie Sanders had a legitimate shot to win the Democratic nomination and she got just that. Clinton won 58 percent of the vote in New York and padded her lead over Sanders.
Now Sanders needs to win virtually every state remaining on the calendar to get the nomination and the odds reflect Clinton’s commanding position. She’s a -1633 favorite to gain the Democratic nomination and at this point only a scandal or an indictment could stop her.
Clinton is on pace to hammer Sanders in the next set of Democratic primaries as well. She’s a -1050 favorite to win Connecticut, -2750 to win Delaware, -5500 to win Maryland, and -2000 to win Pennsylvania. The only state where Sanders has a chance is Rhode Island, where Clinton is just a -128 favorite.
Hillary’s campaign is now looking ahead to the presidency and she is on pace to breeze through the Republican candidate and become the first female POTUS. She is a -320 favorite to win the general election in November and when you consider her polling numbers in hypothetical match-ups against both Trump and Cruz, Hillary may be a steal at that price.
Political Odds at BookMaker.eu
The next round of party primaries will take place on April 26, when Republicans and Democrats alike go to the polls in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. We’re in the homestretch to determine who will be vying to become POTUS in November. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
