Five states hold their primaries on Tuesday and these five states will set the tone of the political discussion for the next week. What will happen in these primaries on April 26? Join us at BookMaker.eu where we break down all the political betting odds.
Wager on all the political betting odds at BookMaker.eu
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Just a few short weeks ago, all the political pundits were talking about how Ted Cruz had the momentum in the campaign and that it would be difficult for Donald Trump to get to 1237 delegates. Since then, that talk has completely evaporated and now we are at the point that the Ted Cruz and John Kasich campaigns have agreed to team up and back off in states the other is likely to do better in in order to deprive Trump of the nomination.
Trump’s odds are the highest they have been in about a month and he is now listed as a -275 favorite to win the Republican nomination. This is due both to his performance in New York and his probable big victories on Tuesday.
The Donald is a massive favorite in every state set to go to the polls this weekend. The biggest prize is Pennsylvania and Trump is a -2960 favorite to win there. The next biggest potential delegate haul is Maryland, where Trump sits as a -2330 betting favorite. The three other states voting this Tuesday, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island, all have Trump between a -4000 and -5000 favorite and that underscores his dominance to win these states.
Something that’s very interesting about these lines though is how at odds they are with FiveThirtyEight’s models. FiveThirtyEight doesn’t have Trump as near as large of a favorite as the betting odds have. For instance, even though Trump is currently polling at almost 15 percentage points better than his nearest competitor in Maryland, Kasich in this case, the prediction site only has Trump with a 79 percent chance to win the Maryland primary.
Some of this may have to do with the announcement of the Cruz and Kasich campaigns to join forces, some of it may have to do with Trump’s tendency to siphon voters as primaries get closer, and some may be because there has been a large discrepancy between polling data and the actual results this campaign.
Whatever happens, the Republican candidate will have a tough time winning the general election. The likelihood of a split ticket where one of the candidates that was left out runs as a third party looks more and more likely each day as it becomes evident how much the Republican Party has fractures. Even worse, these candidates have alienated a lot of mainstream voters.
That’s why Trump is +455 to win the presidency even though he is most likely the Republican nominee and it will be very tough to get any other demographic group to vote for him aside from white males.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton has already pretty much locked the Democratic nomination up and she is a -2000 favorite to get the nod. Clinton’s domination of New York ended Bernie Sanders’ fleeting hopes of a massive push against Clinton and her lead is almost insurmountable.
Sanders’ supporters who were quick to point out his run of victories before New York ignored the fact that Clinton had 2.3 million cumulative votes more than Sanders prior to last Tuesday. She has the popular support, the delegate support, and the party support.
Barring indictment she won’t be stopped.
Clinton is a huge favorite in the two states awarding the most delegates on Tuesday, Pennsylvania and Maryland. In Pennsylvania, Clinton is a -2330 favorite to win and leads Sanders by an average of over 14 points. In Maryland, she is an even stronger favorite at -10300 to win and there she has a lead of about 25 percent in the polls.
As long as there is no further scandal with Hillary, she is essentially a shoe-in to win the presidency due to the turmoil in the Republican Party. Clinton is a -290 favorite to become the POTUS in November and if she runs against Trump she may win the popular vote by 10 percentage points nationally.
Political Odds at BookMaker.eu
The next round of party primaries will take place on April 26, when Republicans and Democrats alike go to the polls in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. We’re in the homestretch to determine who will be vying to become POTUS in November. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
