The last primaries of April are now in the books and two clear frontrunners have emerged to win their parties’ nominations. At this point it’s hard to see anything stop Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump from battling it out to be POTUS in November.
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FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump was a favorite to win every state on Tuesday night and cashed all bets. Heading into Tuesday, Trump was a -312 favorite to win the Republican Party nomination and it’s hard not to see those odds rising after his performance. He not only won, but outperformed all of his expectations heading into the evening.
As of late Tuesday evening, it appears as if he will get over 90 percent of the delegates up for grabs and the only state that will actually award delegates to candidates other than Trump is Rhode Island, which distributes its delegates proportionately.
The other big story for the Republicans after these primaries is what happens with the 54 Pennsylvania delegates who are not tied to a specific candidate? 57 percent of voters in Pennsylvania backed Trump in the primary and although it’s hard to believe that some voters could completely ignore the will of the people, there is nothing binding the delegates to vote for a certain candidate.
The fact that only 17 of PA’s 71 delegates are mandated is pretty alarming itself and will probably be changed for the next primary, but these 54 delegates will be courted heavily in the coming few months since they are allowed to back any candidate and switch their support at any time.
Tuesday was a really disappointing night for John Kasich who had remained in the race up until this point because it was thought that he could pull some votes away from Trump in the northeast and mid-Atlantic. The results were much different than hoped though; Kasich looks like he will only net five candidates out of the 100+ that were available. In the event of Trump winning the nomination, Kasich will likely get a lot of the blame because he has proven to be a weak candidate.
What will happen next? Next week Indiana goes to the polls and the race between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump there should be fascinating. Indiana has a lot of the same demographics as Pennsylvania, but Cruz has a great chance of winning as well and he was already stumping in the Hoosier State ahead of Tuesday night’s results.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Tuesday night was another great night for Hillary Clinton. She further entrenched herself as the Democratic nominee by winning four of the five states holding primaries and only lost Rhode Island, where she was a +100 underdog to win the state. Clinton was a hefty -4000 favorite coming into this set of primaries and that price will only get even more sizeable now.
Clinton’s lead in delegates now is pretty substantial. Only including primary delegates, Clinton has a 285 delegate lead over Bernie Sanders. When superdelegates are included, that number balloons to an almost 800 delegate lead and means that Sanders is in an almost impossible position.
Sanders now needs to win 64 percent of the remaining primary delegates to catch Clinton on that front and even if by some miracle he does that, he is still way behind in the total number of delegates.
The good news for Sanders is that he should do relatively well in the states left to decide.
Even if he doesn’t win these states by the substantial margins needed in order to have a chance to become the Democratic nominee, he will likely be a favorite to win more states than Clinton of those that have yet to go to the polls.
Clinton was a -345 favorite to become the POTUS coming into Tuesday and that number may move up a little bit. Even though it’s rare for one candidate to become a large favorite this early in the election cycle in a two-party system, Clinton is crushing Trump and Cruz in opinion polls and it’s likely she waltzes to the election in the event she faces either of them in November.
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