We’re now in the homestretch of the nomination cycle and for the first time since nominations switched to a delegate format, neither party has its candidate selected yet. Now the nation’s eyes turn to Indiana as the only state with a primary this week.
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FOR THE REPUBLICANS
A win in Indiana would be massive for Donald Trump. Indiana has the most delegates up for grabs of any state left for the Republicans, outside of California, and a Trump win would put him in commanding position to win the Republican Party nomination.
Currently, Trump is a favorite to win the Indiana Republican Primary at -539. These big odds largely come from the findings of three polls released last week. A Marist College poll listed Trump with a 15 point lead over Ted Cruz in Indiana, while polls from American Research Group and Clout Research put Trump’s lead at a more modest nine and two points respectively.
The polls favor Trump, but demographically the Hoosier State is a toss-up. Trump has his pockets of support no doubt, but Cruz figures to do very well in the rural parts of the state and his background as an evangelical Christian is very important in a state that is far more religious than its neighbors.
Looking at the bigger picture, Trump is a -700 favorite to win the Republican nomination and it’s easy to see why. Trump has 400+ more delegates than Cruz does and has 956 pledged delegates and 41 unpledged delegates for a total of 997. If he gets 240 of the 502 delegates left up in the air, then he automatically gets the nomination as 1237 is the magic number.
Even if Trump manages to fall a little short of 1237 though, it’s hard to imagine that he will be denied the nomination if he gets close enough. Since multiple states have unpledged delegates, Trump will likely be able to horsetrade in order to reach the number if he is just a few dozen or so away. However, Trump will only have one or maybe two chances to get the nomination if it becomes a contested convention.
Cruz has outmaneuvered Trump behind the scenes and his campaign has won multiple state conventions that determine which delegates the states will send to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. Many of these delegates are bound to Trump on the first round of voting, but become unbound after that and that’s what gives the Cruz campaign a great chance to win a contested convention.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton is a virtual lock to be the Democratic Party candidate at this point, and with superdelegates included, she’s at over 90 percent of the total she needs to officially win the nomination. Clinton is expected to win Indiana and is a -555 favorite to do so, but at this point all she needs to do is run out the clock and not get crushed in any of the remaining states.
The two most recent polls from the state of Indiana are from Marist College and American Research Group (ARG). The Marist College Poll gives Clinton a four point lead over Bernie Sanders, while the ARG Poll gives her an eight point advantage. At this point in the campaign, she may get a bump from people who want to vote for the winner.
Political science research has shown that when it seems almost impossible for a candidate to lose, that candidate does better on Election Day than in prior polling for two reasons. One, people want to vote for a winner and say they voted for a winner. The second reason is that some supporters of the candidate seen as the eventual loser decide that it’s not worth it to vote so they stay home on voting day. These two factors make Clinton an even more likely favorite to win the Hoosier State.
In the race to become President, Clinton is a large favorite. Her polling numbers are much higher than both Trump’s and Cruz’s and as such she is a -368 favorite to become POTUS. It’s rare that in a two party system, a candidate is this large of a favorite this early in the race, but with a fractured Republican Party, a Clinton victory seems inevitable at this point.
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