Political Odds: Presidential Betting Update

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Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are the presumptive nominees at this point even though neither has actually clinched their party’s nomination as of yet. Still, even though there are still state primaries for the next month, both have turned their attention to the general election and are gearing up for what may be the most divisive election in decades.

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FOR THE REPUBLICANS

Donald Trump is the nominee at this point, but he still has major problems in getting everyone within the Republican Party to get on board with his candidacy. Trump ran an extremely vitriolic campaign and violated a lot of political norms and even still refuses, at least publicly, to reconcile with many party leaders in an effort to unify party support behind him.

The Bush family, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan have all announced that they are not ready to support Trump at this moment and Trump responded dismissively to them all. Even though Trump built his campaign as an outsider candidate, now is the time to bring the party together and make the Republicans as viable as possible in 2016.

Ryan and many other Republicans that have been hesitant to support or criticized Trump believe he’s not a true conservative and will back off of a lot of the positions he took during his primary campaign. It’s normal for candidates to go back toward the center to try to win over independent votes in the general election, but there have been major questions since he announced his intention to run for the Republican Party nomination about Trump’s conservative credentials. There is a feeling among many that he will abandon some of the bedrock principles of the Republican Party in a general election and there’s good reason to think that.

Trump identified himself as a Democrat for the vast majority of his life and even donated to Hillary Clinton multiple times between 2002-2007.

Trump is +245 to be the next POTUS but he still has major questions to answer if he actually becomes Commander-in-chief. He won the Republican nomination on a wave of populism without any real substance to his claims or ideas and now he needs to submit actual proposals.

His claims that he can eliminate the federal debt in just eight years are laughable and his tax and economic plans would add trillions to the national debt according to independent observers. It’s shocking that someone without any real substance has actually come this far, but here we are.

FOR THE DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton survived what turned out to be a legitimate challenge from Bernie Sanders and her campaign is excited to face a Republican candidate that was seen to have the worst chance of beating her in a general election. Clinton is a traditional candidate through and through with feasible platforms and plans, but this is a strange year for American politics and if a few things happen, Clinton might get a real challenge from Trump.

Clinton ran a purposely bland campaign with an eye on the presidential election the whole time. She didn’t stand out in any particular way or put forth any plans that would alienate potential voters. For that reason she ended up having to thwart a Sanders’ attempt at grabbing the Democratic nomination. Sanders galvanized voters and inspired many in a way that was reminiscent of Barack Obama just eight years ago.

If he had entered the nomination race sooner, he may have been able to knock off Clinton, but her position was just too great by the time he decided to enter and it would’ve taken a tremendous effort to stop her from winning the Democratic Party nomination.

Clinton’s boring campaign ran in contrast to Trump’s fiery speeches and extremely opinionated stances, and one of the fears of the Clinton campaign is that Trump’s voters are more likely to go to the polls to cast their ballots for a candidate they identify with, while potential Clinton supporters will stay at home because of a campaign that never really resonated with them.

A strong endorsement from Bernie Sanders or a savvy VP pick could do a lot to keep this from happening, but it’s still a possibility.

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