Election Day is less than six months away and plenty of questions are still abound for presumptive nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Each has concerns about whether or not they will be able to unify the party and both candidates have fears of an independent candidate coming in and ruining their chances at becoming POTUS. Both also still have the tactical choice of who to pick as their running mate and what factors to consider when making that choice.
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2016 US Presidential Election Betting Odds
Hillary Clinton -330
Donald Trump +255
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Donald Trump ran a populist campaign that endeared him to enough voters to win him the Republican Party nomination. However, during his campaign stops his penchant for speaking off the cuff got him into hot water multiple times and alienated large parts of the voting electorate. His main concern for the next few months will be whether or not he can appeal to middle of the road voters in order to build a broad coalition for the general election.
Generally speaking, a presidential candidate will select a potential vice president that is either from an important swing state or strengthens positions or demographic groups that they are weak on. With Trump’s record-setting unpopularity numbers and outsider status, the list of potential running mates for him is extremely long.
Susana Martinez is the betting favorite to become Trump’s running mate at +376 and she has the potential to really help Trump’s cause. Martinez is the first Hispanic woman governor in United States history and her name on the ballot could draw two extremely important demographic groups to consider voting for Trump.
However, Martinez publicly stated last week that she had no interest in the role of Vice President and would rather remain governor. Whether this is true or not, expect Trump to at least privately gauge her interest in the position.
Another popular pick to be Trump’s vice president is John Kasich who was the last person to drop out of the nomination race. He has the allure of being the governor of a swing state, Ohio, as well as the potential to unify the Republican Party.
Kasich is listed at +426 to be Trump’s choice for Vice President but as with Martinez, he too has publicly said that he doesn’t want to be Trump’s running mate. He is more likely to consider the position if Trump reaches out than Martinez though and many analysts believe that his persistence in the nomination race was largely to set himself up as a potential Vice President.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton did her best to not alienate any potential voters and ran a traditional middle-of-the road campaign, but she has a problem with her popularity numbers as well.
According to FiveThirtyEight, if not for Trump, Clinton would be the most disliked presidential candidate at this stage of the race since 1980. Shockingly, the percentage of people who rate their opinion of her as strongly unfavorable is even higher than George W. Bush in 2004.
Conversely, her opponent in the race for the Democratic Party nomination Bernie Sanders polls quite well, and although she may not want to select him as her Vice President, she may want to select someone that is like him both to placate that sector of the Democratic Party and to inspire people like Sanders’ campaign did.
Sanders is +1150 to be Clinton’s Vice President but while on some levels his selection would make sense, it’s rare for a candidate to choose someone that was the other major contender during primary season.
Instead, keep an eye on Julian Castro as Clinton’s choice to be her running mate. Castro is +201 to be her Vice President and would help Clinton appeal to both Hispanics and the young voters that flocked to Sanders in droves during the Democratic Primary. He also provides a link to the Obama Administration through his position as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.
Although he too has said that he won’t be Clinton’s running mate, many believe that he would accept the position if offered as he has no plans to run for public office.
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