The big question looming for the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is who will be the picks for Vice President. There are a number of names that have risen to the surface for each candidate, but obviously some have much better chances than others. Now it’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
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2016 US Presidential Election Betting Odds
Hillary Clinton -300
Donald Trump +233
FOR THE REPUBLICANS
Newt Gingrich is the current favorite to be named Donald Trump’s running mate at +170 odds, but a lot of the value has disappeared from this line. Gingrich doesn’t really do anything to make Trump more electable and his only appeal is to Southern Conservative voters, a group that Trump won big with already and would stay loyal to him in a general election.
Generally, candidates choose a Vice President that helps them appeal to other electoral groups, and Gingrich wouldn’t help Trump out at all. A lot of the love for Gingrich is likely because whereas other people have distanced themselves from the notion of being Trump’s Vice President, Gingrich has not only accepted it but openly flirted with the possibility. He could be a good bet at +500 or better, but at these prices, Gingrich isn’t worth the risk.
Chris Christie is another popular name floated as Trump’s Vice President, but Christie has the same problem as Trump. Although Christie gets points for being one of the first members of the Republican establishment to back Trump, he is so similar to The Donald that it’s hard to imagine him making Trump any more electable. Christie currently sits at +918 to be Trump’s running mate and he’s not worth a gamble at that price.
A long shot to look at for Trump is Sarah Palin. Palin is over 30-1 at this point and is definitely worth a bet at this price. Ben Carson is on Trump’s vice presidential search committee and admitted that Sarah Palin was on the short list of candidates to be Trump’s running mate. Her odds are much higher than some of the other names leaked, but it’s hard to see why.
Although her name is anathema in some circles, she is no less toxic than some of the other candidates that Carson let slip and would help Trump in certain areas. Trump will have a hard time both bringing out the female vote and finding a woman that may want to run with him and Palin would do both of those things. Her selection could also mollify some bitterness in the Republican Party and helps Trump’s appeal as a political outsider. Palin should be about 15-1 and she’s a steal at these odds.
FOR THE DEMOCRATS
Julian Castro is a pretty clear favorite to be Hillary Clinton’s Vice President at +150 odds and his nomination makes a good deal of sense for Hillary. He’s young and Hispanic and can help her expand her reach into both of those voting blocs. For his part, after initially shying away from suggestions of him being the pick for VP, Castro seems to have made moves to make himself a more attractive candidate.
Progressives in the Democratic Party have questioned some of his policies as Secretary of HUD and he has moved to ease those concerns. Even though his odds are extremely short, Castro is worth a look at this price.
The second leading candidate to become Clinton’s choice for Vice President is Tim Kaine. He’s +365 to become Clinton’s running mate and could help her carry his home state of Virginia and boost her polling numbers with white males, a group that she has struggled with. He would make a safe, but prudent pick to be Vice President.
Tom Perez is another intriguing pick to be Hillary’s Vice President at +1230 and is worth keeping an eye on. Like Castro, he has ties to the Obama Administration as the current Secretary of Labor and is also a young, well-liked Hispanic that could help her get an even bigger portion of the Hispanic vote. Perez is worth keeping an eye on and if something trips up Castro in the next few weeks, he’s definitely worth a bet at over 12-1.
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