America has never elected a third party candidate to the presidency, but third party candidates have been known to sabotage one of the major party’s chances to win. This year, the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson has a chance to make some noise in the general election and quite possibly could swing the election.
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Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are overwhelmingly disliked by the American public at historic levels. At this point in the election cycle in 2012, 28 percent of people said they had a negative opinion of Barack Obama and 21 percent said they had a negative opinion of Mitt Romney. Those disapproval ratings were very high compared to the last few decades, but nothing like what is being seen in 2016.
Thirty-seven percent of respondents to a recent survey stated that they had a negative opinion of Hillary Clinton, while more than half said that they had a strongly unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Many Americans have already voiced their displeasure for the two presumptive candidates and this has led to a significant number of Americans stating that they won’t make a vote in 2016.
In this divisive atmosphere, a third party candidate has a real chance to make an impact. According to recent polling, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party could be a big winner and receive the votes of disenchanted Americans. Polls by Morning Consult and Fox News within the last week found that if Gary Johnson is listed as an option alongside Clinton and Trump, he would get 10 percent of the vote.
Ten percent certainly isn’t enough to win, but it’s enough to qualify for federal funding for the Libertarian Party and wreak havoc on the two major parties.
The last time a third party candidate submarined a presidential hopeful was in 2000. Ralph Nader received almost three million votes and garnered 97,421 votes in the state of Florida. His performance in Florida was one of the factors that led to Al Gore losing the election as exit polls would indicate.
Of the Nader voters surveyed, 38 percent said that they would have voted for Gore if Nader wasn’t on the ballot, compared to just 25 percent saying they would have voted for George W. Bush in that scenario. Gore lost Florida by just 537 votes and angry Democrats have blamed Nader ever since.
Many members of the Republican Party establishment claim the party was hurt by a third party candidate as well. In 1992, Ross Perot received almost 20 million votes and potentially undermined George H.W. Bush’s chances at reelection. Bill Clinton received only 43 percent of the vote that year, but picked up 370 electoral votes in a diluted election.
The evidence is dubious that Perot actually cost the first Bush a second term, but Perot’s success goes to show the effect that a popular third party candidate can have.
Who would benefit from a strong push by Gary Johnson in 2016? Conventional wisdom says that Hillary Clinton would receive a boost as Johnson would more likely erode Republican Party support. The Libertarian Party has much more in common with the Republican Party and some of its members claim that the party is what the GOP used to be, a party that stresses civil liberties and small government.
A few prominent Conservative voices have already expressed their desire to vote for Johnson in lieu of Donald Trump and have cited that they believe that Johnson is more consistent with traditional Republican ideals than Trump is.
The biggest question is how much support Gary Johnson can get in the general election. First, Johnson needs to actually win the Libertarian Party nomination, the convention will select a candidate in Orlando this weekend, but it is widely believed that he will be a shoe-in to earn the nod.
If Johnson can get to 15 percent in polling, he should get invited to debates where he could increase his vote share even more. For his part, Johnson has shown he isn’t afraid to stand toe-to-toe with Trump, calling him a “pussy” in one of the Libertarian Party debates.
Johnson has a chance to be a major spoiler and could take a considerable number of votes away from Trump.
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