June 7 will mark the end of the long primary season and the only real question is whether or not Hillary Clinton will be able to get a majority of pledged delegates before superdelegates come into play. Clinton needs 571 of the 851 delegates available to reach this mark and has spent much of her time in California where 546 delegates are up for grabs. Whether or not Clinton can get to that number will be the big story of Tuesday night.
Wager on all the political betting odds at BookMaker.eu
2016 US Presidential Election Betting Odds
Democrats -286
Republicans +261
Any Other Party +2622
Hillary Clinton is a -447 favorite to win the California Democratic Primary, but Sanders is a very live dog at +323 to win the state. Even though prediction website FiveThirtyEight has Clinton’s chances set at 90 percent the day before the primary, Sanders has made a habit of outperforming his polling. He has consistently beaten his projected numbers and that gives him a chance to win in California.
The polling averages put Clinton ahead of Sanders by about five percent, but the margin should be much narrower than that. Four polls done over the last two weeks had Clinton up by just one or two percentage points and that gives Sanders a lot of hope for Tuesday. His message resonates with many Californians and if he outperforms his polling like he has recently he has a great chance to win California as an underdog.
Even if Sanders wins California though, he still has virtually no chance at winning the Democratic nomination. It’s somewhat silly that Sanders is telling his supporters that the race isn’t over and he still has a chance at this stage. Clinton has almost 300 more pledged delegates than Sanders does at this point and a massive lead in superdelegates. She would have to win virtually none of the delegates left up for grabs at this point to lose that big of a lead. It’s a dangerous game for Sanders too, the longer his supporters think he has a chance, the harder it will be for them to return to the fold and back Clinton. If many disillusioned Sanders supporters stay home on Election Day, or even worse vote for Trump, that would hurt Clinton’s chances.
The other big primary on Tuesday is New Jersey and that should be a big win for Clinton. She is very popular in the Garden State and the few polls that have been released show her with a 20 point lead in the state. New Jersey only has 142 delegates at state, but if Clinton can get 85 or 90 of the delegates there that will help her in her quest to completely knock Sanders out of the race.
Looking at the national picture, money is once again coming in on the Democrats to win the election after a short time where most of the money was coming in on Donald Trump. Trump continues to make foolish statements and advocate untenable positions and the thought is eventually this will catch up with him. To this point, Trump is still polling relatively well to Clinton and has been within five points of her in the last four national polls taken. This margin will likely increase as we get closer and closer to Election Day as the reality of a Trump candidacy becomes more and more present, but he doesn’t look like he will be blown out for now.
After primary season is over, the next stages will be the actual party conventions and the vice presidential choices. Both Trump and Clinton have been relatively quiet about who they would like as their running mates, but favorites have emerged on both sides. For Clinton, Julian Castro is down to +131 to be her running mate. Castro is a very logical choice for Clinton and would theoretically further solidify her strong position in the Latino community. As for Trump, his most logical choices have already stated that they wouldn’t be running with him and his favorite is Newt Gingrich at +135. Gingrich will help Trump get more evangelical voters out but won’t help him win any state that he wasn’t already a favorite in.
Political Odds at BookMaker.eu
With the earliest political betting lines, there is no reason to not join BookMaker Sportsbook! Our writers provide all the analysis to handicap all of the political races and the U.S. Presidential Election. Wager on the possible outcomes at Bookmaker.eu today.
