It’s been a really bad month for Donald Trump. His poll numbers have fallen precipitously and his chances to win the presidency look to be dimming day by day. Does he have any chance to pull out of his tailspin and become the POTUS at this point?
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DONALD TRUMP
Donald Trump continues to shoot himself in the foot. Following the Orlando shootings, not only did he make disparaging marks against the Muslim community, effectively accusing an entire group of people of harboring terrorists, he also fanned the flames of the gun control debate by stating that the massacre in Orlando could have been stopped if the club patrons were armed. This was such an untenable position that Trump had to backtrack this weekend and even the NRA distanced itself from Trump’s comments. Gun control has the potential to be a major issue this cycle and Trump’s stance continues to change on this. He may end up alienating all sides if he doesn’t stake out a definitive policy.
Trump also made headlines Monday by firing his campaign manager. Lewandowski has been mired in controversy after allegedly forcefully grabbing a reporter at a campaign event in Florida in March and although Trump stuck by him initially, it became clear that Trump needs a fall guy to explain his poor polling. Trump had stood by Lewandowski through all the controversy, but Republican leadership had been pressuring Trump to make a change and this was seen as an opportune time. It’s unclear as of yet who Trump will replace Lewandowski with, but the Republican establishment is hopeful that it will be someone who will distance the campaign from its virulently racist rhetoric.
Comparing Trump to the last few Republican candidates shows just how unpopular he is. George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney all polled around the 45 percent mark at this point in the campaign and while Trump was at this number a month ago, he is well below the mark now. According to Real Clear Politics, Trump’s polling numbers have dipped below 40 percent and with less than five months between now and the election he has to start to rally.
HILLARY CLINTON
Hillary Clinton has taken a much more nuanced stance towards gun control in the aftermath of Orlando. She has made it clear that she is firmly in the camp of those that believe that there needs to be greater restrictions on gun ownership and is in line with her party’s stance. Clinton appears to be content to just run a conservative campaign and let Trump continue to dig his own grave with his statements.
The speculation around Clinton recently has been about her vice presidential choice. Elizabeth Warren has been consistently floated to be Clinton’s running mate and the match makes sense on a number of levels. Warren is a very popular Democrat with a lot of the same views as Sanders and her selection would be an olive branch to Sanders’ supporters and that portion of the Democratic Party that preferred Sanders over Clinton in the first place.
However, there is a slight snag when it comes to Clinton selecting Warren. A Politico article recently published featured anonymous quotes from a few dozen Wall Street big wigs who have said that support from Wall Street would disappear if Clinton picked Warren. Warren is seen as ostensibly tough on corporations and like Sanders she would pillory the financial industry for the breaks it receives. Clinton has a tough decision when it comes to this, especially since she has been destroying Trump in fundraising.
PROGNOSTICATION
Trump’s fundraising is at record lows. His campaign only raised $3 million in the month of May and according to federal filing documents has less than $1.5 million available. Trump has run a self-aggrandizing campaign and claimed that he has no need for fundraising and that he can bankroll himself, but this number is perilously low. Clinton is trouncing him when it comes to fundraising and although the evidence is murky when it comes to whether or not spending matters in a hotly contested campaign, it does point out that when spending is lopsided, it usually leads to a lopsided victory as well.
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