The odds on Hillary Clinton to win the presidency have fallen in the wake of some of the events that have happened over the last week or so. Donald Trump has made one of his major campaign pegs the economy and there is a school of thought that says the Brexit helped him. Could the UK deciding to leave the EU spark a resurgence in Trump’s chances?
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2016 US Presidential Election Betting Odds
Democrats -370
Republicans +285
Any Other Party +7000
BREXIT
Last Thursday, the United Kingdom held a referendum to decide whether or not it wanted to remain part of the European Union. Its citizens shocked the world by indicating they wanted to leave. Understandably, this sent shockwaves throughout the British political system and led to the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron, along with the shadow cabinet and possibly, the removal of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, as well depending on a no-confidence vote, scheduled by Labour MPs.
The tumult extended to the market as well when it became evident that the Leave option would pass, the British pound plummeted in early morning trading. The value of the pound fell a shade over 10 percent, and hit its lowest point in over 30 years. A myriad of companies expressed their disappointment with the result, and many have stated that they will have to either scale down their operations in the UK, or leave the country entirely.
In addition to that, the UK also received some bad news as it lost its AAA credit rating. The public tends to overlook the importance of small things like this, but it’s vitally important to a nation’s economy as a whole.
How does all of this relate to Donald Trump? Trump has made his claim to the presidency largely due to his supposed expertise in handling the economy. The Brexit has impacted the US in a large way as well, with the Dow Jones falling 870 points over the last two days and the Standard and Poor’s index and NASDAQ index being crippled as well. Trump has made the case that he will be able to keep the US from being hurt in situations like this, and the betting public thinks this to be the case.
THE FIRING OF COREY LEWANDOWSKI
Trump’s stubbornness in refusing to get rid of campaign manager, Corey Lewnadowski had been seen as a hindrance to his campaign, but Trump finally did what he had needed to after weeks of tumbling in the polls. Lewandowski put off many with his abrasiveness, and the Republican leadership was finally able to convince Trump that he needed to go, if Trump wanted to win the election.
The hope now is that a more pragmatic person will run Trump’s campaign. Lewandowski was keen to just let Trump do his own thing, since it had been working, but that hadn’t worked well once Trump won the Republican nomination. Trump must appeal to a broader spectrum of voters and needs to stay away from his tendency to go off script. His personality has endeared him to his core supporters, but if he says the wrong thing in a national debate against Clinton, he may put himself in a hole from which he can’t recover.
WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY?
Although money has come in on Trump over the past few days, the polls have yet to indicate any reason for Trump backers to feel better about his chances come November. RealClearPolitics shows Clinton with an almost seven-point advantage nationwide at this stage, and polls taken last week made it appear that the advantage may be even bigger.
However, the latest polls only polled until last Thursday before the events of Brexit. Many bettors seem to think that this will lead to a boost in Trump’s chances to become the POTUS, but without any poll results it’s impossible to tell whether or not that is actually the case.
Take this as an opportunity to bet against Trump at odds lower than they should be yet again. It’s dubious at best to think that a large percentage of people will equate the negative economic impact of Brexit with the supposed benefits of a Trump presidency. Trump still has a lot of problems with his bid to become POTUS, and this won’t alleviate the majority of them.
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