National polls show Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead over Donald Trump at this point. Most models show Clinton with around a seven percent lead over Trump right now, but the election isn’t decided by the popular vote. That being the case, it’s time to look at the important swing state battles to see where the candidates stand.
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To Win the Presidency
Hillary Clinton -495
Donald Trump +365
WHO WILL WIN FLORIDA?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY -284
REPUBLICAN PARTY +222
The battle for the Sunshine State is one of the keys to determine who will win the election, and is typically one of the most hotly contested. Florida is where Hillary Clinton’s forces have bought the most television airtime to date, spending over $20 million. They will spend even more the nearer we get to Election Day, while Trump, on the other hand, has only spent $300,000 on television advertising. His chances to win the state have diminished as a result.
Florida was always going to be a difficult state for Trump to win due to its large proportion of non-white voters, but not spending advertising money in a state while your opponent is spending loads, is a quick way to fall further behind. Research suggests that campaign spending doesn’t matter as long as candidates spend somewhat similar amounts, but if there is a large difference in advertising expenditures, then spending can make a big difference.
Currently, FiveThirtyEight shows Clinton with a 79 percent chance to win the state and the poll taken by Suffolk University last week showed Clinton with a four-point lead over Trump.
WHO WILL WIN OHIO?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY -325
REPUBLICAN PARTY +250
Ohio has ended up voting for the eventual president in every election since 1960, and is a place where Trump can succeed, despite failing to win the state’s primary. The demographics of the state are favorable towards Trump, but once again, he is failing to spend the money necessary to compete.
Trump has only spent around $175k in the Buckeye State to date, while Clinton has spent almost $17 million. Clinton knows that to feel confident about her chances to win Ohio she has to outspend Trump and she has been doing just that. Her husband’s support of NAFTA during his presidency is a sore spot among many Ohio voters, and is something she will have to overcome to win here.
FiveThirtyEight’s model has Clinton winning the state over three-quarters of the time, but the last poll conducted in the state showed her behind Trump. Public Policy Polling’s poll showed Trump with a three-point lead over Clinton, but the poll was held immediately following the Republican National Convention, when Trump support was at its highest.
WHO WILL WIN PENNSYLVANIA?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY -555
REPUBLICAN PARTY +395
Pennsylvania is seen as a battleground state, but has voted Democrat in the past six elections, thanks to strong union support. However, there is a chance for Trump to win this state. He vastly outperformed his polling numbers in the Keystone State during the Republican Primary, beating the projected outcome by 15 points, and has spent a lot of time campaigning there.
Clinton may have made a mistake in Pennsylvania. Her campaign’s internal pollsters think her lead is safe, and she has shifted money towards battlegrounds in other areas. Even though the numbers look good for her now, this is a state where Trump can make up a lot of ground in a hurry; if she isn’t careful she could lose this state, even if she does win the general election.
The model from FiveThirtyEight shows Clinton with an 86 percent chance to win Pennsylvania now, and the most recent polls have Clinton with a double-digit lead over Trump. There’s a long way to go between now and Election Day though and if Trump decides to spend money here, he could pull off an upset.
Political Odds:
Democrats to win Florida -284
Democrats to win Ohio -325
Republicans to win Pennsylvania +395
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