All aboard the Hillary Clinton train. Although most analysts believed that Donald Trump’s numbers would improve and he would become competitive with Clinton again, that has yet to happen. Instead, Clinton is widening her lead and it is starting to look like she might win a landslide victory with Trump continuing to lash out at anyone and everyone. This week we’ll look at the betting markets in states that were once considered locks for Republicans, but have since shifted into the swing state category.
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To Win the Presidency
Hillary Clinton -560
Donald Trump +395
WHO WILL WIN UTAH?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY +253
REPUBLICAN PARTY -335
Utah hasn’t gone to the Democrats since 1964 and Republicans have won this state by overwhelming margins this century. The best a Democratic candidate has ever done over the past five elections was President Barack Obama winning 34.4 percent of the vote back in 2008.
However, Trump is wildly unpopular in Utah and the poll done by top-rated pollster SurveyUSA two months ago showed a dead heat between Clinton and Trump in Utah. This is a state that Clinton has a shot in because Gary Johnson has polled extremely well and he is taking away a considerable amount of support away from Trump. In every poll performed in the state where his name has been one of the choices, Johnson has garnered at least 10 percent of the vote.
If Clinton wins Utah, she will owe Johnson a gift basket and that will be indicative that a rout is on. She has no business winning this state but has a shot as long as Johnson keeps hanging around his polling numbers.
WHO WILL WIN INDIANA?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY +355
REPUBLICAN PARTY -500
At first glance, Indiana seems like a state that the Republicans should dominate. The demographics of the state are pretty favorable to the GOP and Trump trounced his competition in the Republican primary.
However, the state some refer to as the Crossroads of America has surprised us before. Back in 2008, Indiana voted with the Democrats for the first time in 44 years after George W. Bush won the state by 20 points four years prior. Swings like this are unheard of in the political sphere, but that gives the Clinton campaign hope that they can make Indiana blue again.
A poll by Expedition Strategies released two weeks ago shows the race between Clinton and Trump as neck and neck, but Trump is likely ahead at this point based on prior poll results. At those odds though, Clinton is a sharp bet.
WHO WILL WIN MISSOURI?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY +212
REPUBLICAN PARTY -275
The Show Me State has shown its colors as red through the last four elections, but the Democrats have never been dominated in this state and Obama nearly won it back in 2008. Missouri’s demographics are very similar to Ohio’s and that’s good news for the Democrats. 81 percent of Missouri’s population is non-Hispanic whites, but over 11 percent of the state’s population is black, another good sign for the Democrats as black voters overwhelmingly vote blue.
FiveThirtyEight currently has the race in Missouri slightly in Trump’s favor, but Clinton can easily make the ground up. The last two polls released in the state show Clinton within a couple of percentage points of Trump and if she continues to outspend Trump like she has been, she can cut his lead to nothing in no time flat.
A Trump loss in any of these states is extremely bad news for Republicans. He has to walk an electoral high-wire in order to get to 270 electoral votes and he can’t lose states like Utah, Indiana, and Missouri. The fact that Democrats believe they have a chance to win these states and are now starting to advertise in them in anticipation of a landslide, shows how precarious Trump’s position is at this point.
Political Odds at BookMaker.eu:
Republicans to win Utah -335
Democrats to win Indiana +355
Democrats to win Missouri +212
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