National polls seem to finally show the race narrowing between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, but they have only narrowed slightly. Is it getting to be too little, too late for Trump? There are just two and a half months left until the start of the election. If Trump is going to make a move, it has to be now.
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To Win the Presidency
Hillary Clinton -520
Donald Trump +375
WHO WILL WIN NEVADA?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY -550
REPUBLICAN PARTY +385
Hillary Clinton will be stopping in Nevada to campaign on Thursday. She will try to shore up a state that Barack Obama won by a pretty healthy margin in the last two elections, thanks to strong support from gaming unions, and a surging number of Hispanics. FiveThirtyEight only gives Clinton a 75 percent chance to win Nevada at this juncture, and the polls have showed a much tighter race than anticipated.
Unlike other states where Clinton has pulled ahead over time, Nevada has consistently showed a neck-and-neck race. All the polling results have been within the margin of error, and Clinton has been ahead by just two points in both polls conducted in August. The main reason Trump remains close seems to be the large number of non-college educated whites. This is the group which he has dominated throughout the campaign, but he needs to broaden his message to include other voters in order to win in Nevada, and the general election itself.
WHO WILL WIN GEORGIA?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY +152
REPUBLICAN PARTY -190
It’s pretty hard to believe the Democrats actually have a chance in Georgia. Georgia has voted for a Republican candidate in five straight elections; even with Obama’s surge in 2008, he still lost The Peach State by over five points. However, as the state becomes more and more diverse, and with minorities making up a greater percentage of the population every year, it is suddenly in striking distance for Clinton.
Democratic strategists have long salivated over the idea of Georgia turning blue, and if it’s going to happen in the near future it will be in 2016. Polls in early August showed Clinton with a slight lead, but more recent results have shown Trump with the advantage. Clinton being able to win in Georgia would seriously weaken the GOP’s stronghold on the southern states which it has relied upon for support since the Civil Rights movement, and would spell trouble for Trump and Republican candidates.
WHO WILL WIN TEXAS?
DEMOCRATIC PARTY +525
REPUBLICAN PARTY -850
Let’s be honest, the Republicans aren’t going to lose Texas. The Lone Star State is the lynchpin in GOP plans to win the presidency, and can be colored red as soon as the Republican candidate is announced. Texas has voted for the Republican in each of the last nine elections, and often overwhelmingly so. George W. Bush won the state by 20 points during his two terms in office, and Obama lost it by double-digits in each of his terms.
This line is available because the polling has shown Clinton within ten points of Trump, but that’s simply not the case when you look at the methodology. The polls in Texas have had a much greater number of respondents refusing to back Clinton or Trump than in other states with anywhere between 18-29 percent of the respondents stating that they would either back a third-party candidate, or are still undecided. These voters are very likely to be Republican voters disenchanted with Trump, and will either swallow their misgivings and back him, or not vote at all come Election Day. Either way this is a steal of a price, even if it is heavy chalk.
Trump has a lot of work to do in the next few weeks before the presidential debates start. He needs to find a message that will expand his base as his current support group won’t be enough to win in November.
Political Odds at BookMaker.eu:
Democrats to win Nevada -550
Republicans to win Georgia -190
Republicans to win Texas -850
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