Political Odds - Presidential Betting Update

Politics-Update-9-22-ar

Donald Trump continues to narrow the gap on Hillary Clinton and there are legitimate fears from the Democrats that Clinton’s once unassailable lead might have completely vanished. There are less than 50 days until the election now and Clinton has her work cut out for her if she wants to avoid losing to the most unpopular presidential candidate in American history.

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To Win the Presidency
Republicans +165
Democrats -200
Any Other Party +15000

TRUMP’S APPEAL TO MINORITIES

At least on the surface, Trump is making an appeal to African American communities in the Midwest. In the past week, he has taken the time to speak at a handful of events that were intended to show his inclusiveness. However, there have been some doubts about how genuine these appeals are.

Skeptics say that these overtures are nothing more than Trump going through the motions to avoid being branded as a racist and that his campaign is aware that he won’t be able to swing minority voters. Trump hasn’t helped matters by using speakers like Don King to push his message to these voters and has also continued to make head scratching remarks.

When addressing the issue of black-on-black violence, Trump stated that stop-and-frisk would be a good way to stop the violence. That statement, like much of what Trump has said, is incredibly tone deaf as stop-and-frisk was deemed to violate the constitutional rights of minorities. If Trump was serious about courting minority voters, he would know that something like this is at the very least a touchy subject.

POLICE VIOLENCE

For her part, Clinton made the first exceptionally strong stance of her campaign when she condemned the deaths of two African Americans at the hands of police officers. The Democrats have been accused of not doing much for African Americans, since their votes were considered safely blue, but Clinton has tried to hammer that support down with her statements.

Clinton is hoping that this renewed push for support will energize people to vote for her at the same rates they did for Barack Obama. She has had some difficulty in getting people excited about her campaign and this could possibly be the thing that does it. This issue has gained increasing salience and could be a defining issue of this election.

FOREIGN POLICY

Trump has hammered Clinton for the decisions she made as the Secretary of State and with renewed questions about domestic safety from terrorism, this could again come to the forefront. The Republican candidate has repeatedly stated that Clinton’s decisions led to ISIS gaining strength in the Middle East and that the group would be wiped out if he were elected Commander-in-Chief.

These assertions come on shaky ground though as interviews with Trump in the past have him stating that Clinton was doing a fine job in the position. It’s also unclear if he knows much about foreign policy either, as he spurned the Ukrainian prime minister when he came to New York City earlier this week.

In addition to that, Trump is outright lying with his statement that he was against the war in Iraq. This is easily debunked by listening to the interview he did with Howard Stern back in 2002 where he stated that he was for the war. It’s puzzling why he continues to say this when there is evidence to the contrary and it is likely something that Clinton and moderator Lester Holt will try to pin him down on in the first debate.

However, Trump has been smooth in avoiding being tied to any one stance and rivals have found it hard to get anything to stick on him. If he continues to be the Teflon candidate, he might actually win the presidency.

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