The North Carolina Tar Heels are one of those dark horse teams which could crop up and finish out the season with a Top 20 ranking and at least a shot to get into a New Year's Six bowl game. Larry Fedora is in a bit of a make-or-break season for his job, and if he can't get to eight wins this season, he doesn't deserve to keep said job.
2015 SCHEDULE
9/3: at South Carolina
9/12: vs. North Carolina A&T
9/19: vs. Illinois
9/26: vs. Delaware
10/3: at Georgia Tech
10/17: vs. Wake Forest
10/24: vs. Virginia
10/29: at Pittsburgh
11/7: vs. Duke
11/14: vs. Miami
11/21: at Virginia Tech
11/28: at North Carolina State
Go find a game on this schedule which you know North Carolina is going to lose. Go ahead. Try to find it.
Oh sure, there are games against South Carolina and Georgia Tech on the road which will prove to be really tough games, but they’re certainly winnable fixtures. There aren't a lot of games here where you certainly know that the Heels will be victorious, but there won't be a lot of games where they’re heavy underdogs either.
SEASON WIN TOTAL
The oddsmakers are almost certainly telling you that the Tar Heels could be good this year. They have a season win total of seven, which should fall in line with about a 200 to 1 price to win the National Championship. Instead, the odds are 700 to 1.
That season win total though, is helped out by the fact that there are a pair of FCS teams on the schedule in UNC A&T and Delaware. Illinois and Wake Forest should make for two more easy wins as well to get to four. From there, you're basically asking for this to be a .500 team to beat this season win total.
OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK
All season last year, the North Carolina offense was on fire. The team dropped at least 40 points six times, though it should be noted that two of those games were lost (more on this woeful defense in a minute).
Marquise Williams is a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate this year. He threw for 3,068 yards and rushed for 788 more last year, and he accounted for a total of 34 touchdowns. Granted, he is going to need to do significantly more than that in order to win the Heisman, but he is more than capable.
Why is that? Because he has a total of 10 starters back from last year's team which averaged 33.2 points per game. Only the tight end spot is going to be up in the air this year, and it might be the least important position on this offense.
T.J. Logan should again be a nice complementary piece in the UNC backfield with Williams, but this offensive line, which has a ton of starts together, should be the key to moving the ball up and down the field.
DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK
But can UNC stop anyone? There aren't many teams which allowed more than 240 passing yards and 240 rushing yards per game a year ago, but North Carolina pulled off the feat.
Fedora knows that he has a lot of work to do on this side of the ball. Bringing back eight starters might help, but who really wants to see eight of the same guys on last year's defense running around trying to chase ACC offenses once again?
SEASON PREDICTION
Still, we really like North Carolina here, and we're willing to take a stab on this team at 700 to 1 to win it all.
This schedule is such that 10 or 11 wins is a distinct possibility, and without Clemson or Florida State on the schedule, there is a real advantage for the Heels against the wide open ACC Coastal Division.
It's a long shot for sure, and Fedora could end up winning just five or six with this club, which would probably get him fired. Still, we trust in Williams, one of these up and coming dual-threat quarterbacks in the ACC, and he and this experienced offense should end up being good enough to at least contend for the conference title.
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