Save for a couple easy matchups with New Mexico State and Texas-San Antonio, the Texas AM Aggies have had a rough second half following a 6-0 start. They’ll try to end the year on a positive note, however, when they take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Texas Bowl. This will be the first meeting between these two teams since the Aggies bolted from the Big 12 to join the SEC.
Kickoff for this AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl game is set for Wednesday, December 28, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas AM -2
Kansas State +2
Over/Under 56.5
Odds Analysis
It wasn’t that long ago, but it seems like ages since Texas AM rose to No. 6 in the nation after starting the year 6-0. The offense was absolutely devastating to the opposition while the defense was better than expected.
The team’s first loss came at the hands of Alabama. That is hardly a surprise given how the Crimson Tide have been able to manhandle pretty much everyone they’ve faced, but the Aggies couldn’t ever bounce back. Texas AM lost that game by 19-points, just barely unable to cover the 18-point spread. Nevertheless, that was the team’s third straight loss ATS. The Aggies have now failed to cover the spread in eight straight contests.
On the other side, Kansas State put together a rather fine year. They routinely came up short ATS, but ended up winning eight games and at least closed out the year covering two of their last three games.
Injury Report
After injuring himself in the game against Mississippi State last month, Trevor Knight missed a few games, coming back in the series finale against LSU before leaving that game.
Knight’s knee has been troublesome, but he’s expected to play and be well rested and at full strength for the Texas Bowl. That’s crucial as Knight is key to both the passing and running games. Even in an injury shortened season, he’s thrown 2,122 yards and 16 touchdowns though he’s only completed 51.9-percent of his passes. His arm isn’t that great, but he’s a good leader and is able to use his weapons and read the field well, making it quite a big gap between him and Jake Hubenak.
Knight also provides plenty of offense on the ground. He’s gaining 6.3 yards per carry and can extend plays while also moving the chains when necessary. He’s also the team’s leading scorer on the ground with 10 rushing touchdowns.
While Knight has plenty of weapons at his disposal to help him out, there’s a noticeable drop off in the offensive production of this team when Knight is out or even rusty as he was early versus the Tigers of LSU.
Coaching Angle
Bill Snyder remains one of the game’s better coaches. Even with a team lacking the talent and names that Texas AM has, look for Snyder to keep his team close.
He’s had particularly good success with his Wildcats at home, but they’ve fared well at home or on the road against Texas based opponents.
Snyder should have his team pumped up to play a team that was so highly regarded earlier this season. A bowl game is a big deal for this team from Manhattan. We’ve seen Snyder lead his team to wins over superior teams already this year.
On the other side of the gridiron, the job is tougher for Kevin Sumlin. He’s team has been on a skid and he’s been seemingly unable to do anything about it. They lost a game everyone expected them to lose by a margin most expected, but they’ve been a different—lackluster—team since.
Can Sumlin motivate this team to close out the year on a positive note? A bowl game should hold more appeal to this team and a healthy Knight could spark them. That’s the hope, but it would seem—at least on the surface—that the coaching edge goes to Kansas State and the Texas AM chances rely on the team’s better talent and deeper offense.
Free ATS Pick
The Aggies are a better team. They should win by a sizeable margin, but the motivation for this team has been missing since the Alabama loss. They’ve routinely underperformed, but a healthy and rested Knight may be enough of a spark.
It’s hard to back a team that’s failed to cover the spread since September, but the talent says the margin in this game should be greater than two points. Texas AM will score. Their offense, namely the stacked core of receivers, is just too good. Meanwhile, the Aggies’ defense—even with its bumps and bruises along the way—will have a chance given how the offense is centered on Jesse Ertz. The Aggies’ defense can hone in on him with Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall collapsing the pocket around him.
College Football Odds: Texas AM 37, Kansas State 30
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