Georgia can solidify itself as a serious playoff contender and deliver a knockout blow to Alabama’s CFP hopes with a win between the hedges on Saturday.
It’s been so long since Bama was an underdog, many of us weren’t of legal gambling age. It last happened back in 2009 when the Tide was a five-point dog against Florida in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia looks like the real deal winning all four of its games by at least 17 points going 2-2 ATS.
ODDS
Georgia opened as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 54. Alabama is an underdog for the first time in 72 games. The last time the Tide was given points, they trounced Florida 32-13 in the SEC title game. The total fell a point to 53, and while their clashes have been few and far between, the over has paid in each of the past five meetings.
KEY MISMATCH
Offensively, things start with Nick Chubb for the Bulldogs. Chubb has carried the ball 71 times for 599 yards – an average of 8.44 yards per carry – and six touchdowns. He ranks second in the SEC and sixth in the nation with 149.75 rushing yards per game and has 12 straight 100-yard games, tying Herschel Walker’s school record. Only 12 offenses have pulled off more 20-yard gains than Georgia, and most operate at much higher tempos. Chubb has figured out a way to surpass what he did last year. Despite losing work to other running backs and the scoreboard, he’s on pace for a 2,000-yard season if Georgia makes the SEC title game. Chubb is gaining at least five yards on 53 percent of his carries, and while he’s been overshadowed by LSU’s Leonard Fournette, extending his 100-yard streak against this defense would garner headlines.
KEY STAT
56.75 – Alabama’s rushing yards allowed per game. The Tide’s fourth-ranked rush defense will be tested by the Bulldogs and Chubb, who ranks sixth nationally with 149.75 rush yards per game.
BETTING ANGLE
For Alabama, this might be an elimination game. We don’t yet know how the committee would respond to a second loss by a true contender, but it won’t be favorable. And the fact that failure to earn a win would put Alabama two losses and a tie-breaker behind Ole Miss in the SEC West would damage the Tide’s chances even further. If this game comes down to pure motivation, give No. 13 Alabama the edge. Georgia, the No. 8 team, could absorb a loss, finish 11-1 and still be in position to reach the College Football Playoff with an SEC title. Never say never, but if Alabama loses on Saturday, Nick Saban’s squad probably won’t be playing for a national title. And then the “Is this the end of a dynasty?” talk that started a week ago, would certainly ramp up.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Alabama rarely finds itself in a must-win situation this early in the season, but it could be just that this week. A second straight conference loss would be devastating for the Tide’s playoff chances while a win puts them right back on track with home dates in three of the next four games. While the Bulldogs have Chubb in their backfield, the Tide has a solid back in Derrick Henry and a run defense Georgia and Chubb hasn’t faced. Bama’s front seven is a major part of the team’s SEC-leading run defense, allowing just 56.75 yards per game. The Tide also holds teams to less than two yards per carry and has only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season. Chubb will get his touches and might get to 100 yards, but they will be hard earned. There’s too much at stake for Bama and the proud group will respond with another win over Georgia.
Alabama 27, Georgia 23
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Georgia -2.5 with a total of 54. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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