The argument could be made that the best non-New Year's Six bowl game is the Valero Alamo Bowl. The Oregon Ducks were playing great ball at the end of the season, and they're taking on a TCU Horned Frogs outfit that probably would've been in the College Football Playoff had their Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback and top receiver not gotten hurt.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon Ducks PK
TCU Horned Frogs PK
Over/Under 75
ODDS ANALYSIS
With Trevone Boykin expected back for the Alamo Bowl, the oddsmakers are having a really tough time in this game. The game was initiated at a pick 'em along with a total of 75.
The total has only come up, rising all the way to 78.5, an incredibly high total by any standards, especially this time of year. The spread has seen both teams favored by as high as -1.5, but we suspect things will settle back down to right around a pick 'em by the time this is said and done with.
KEY MISMATCH
Over the course of the last five weeks, Vernon Adams has really come on strong. It took a little while for the Eastern Washington transfer to get his feet about him, and he had to recover from an injury early in the season as well.
Adams threw for 1,593 yards and accounted for 20 total touchdowns in his last five games of the year. He's not quite doing as much running around as he's used to as an FCS quarterback, but he's certainly capable of doing so if need be.
TCU's pass defense allowed quarterbacks to complete just 49.0 percent of their passes this year. Gary Patterson's team has really played well in the secondary, but there really hasn't been a situation where the Horned Frogs have had to go against an elite level quarterback on a clean track without Mother Nature being involved. This will be a heck of a test.
KEY STAT
9.8 – The number of points per game the Horned Frogs allowed in the second halves of games in 2015. Their defense wasn't quite as strong in the first half at 15.8 points per game, but this is a unit which clearly gets better as the game wears on. It's a testament to just how good of a coach Patterson is, and at this point in the bowl season, defenses tend to have just a bit of a leg up due to all of the preparation time available.
BETTING ANGLE
The under is 8-0-1 in TCU's last nine bowl games overall. You actually have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time the Horned Frogs played a bowl game beyond 55 total points, and they haven't played a bowl game beyond 70 total points in their history.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Though both of these teams have a history of playing games into the 80s, we just don't think the Alamo Bowl is going to get there. TCU's defense has come on strong, while the Oregon defense has suddenly kept three of its last five teams under 30 total points.
We're also a little bit hesitant about the state of Boykin in this game. Sure, when he's at his best, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, but he hasn't played since November 27 and won't have Josh Doctson available to him in this one either.
The moral of the story? Expect a lower scoring game in the Alamo Bowl than the oddsmakers suggest.
Oregon 33, TCU 24
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Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet. Click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The war between the Oregon Ducks and TCU Horned Frogs will take place Saturday, January 2, 2016, at 6:45 p.m. ET at the Alamodome. The game will be televised on ESPN.
