Comfortable within the Big 12, the conference’s champion will get to test its strength against a SEC foe when the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Auburn Tigers in one of the handful of games set for the second day of the 2017 year. This Allstate Sugar Bowl matchup features a pair of classic programs meeting for the second time ever; the last coming in the 1972 Sugar Bowl.
Kickoff for this Allstate Sugar Bowl game is set for Monday, January 1, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Auburn +3
Oklahoma -3
Over/Under 62.5
Odds Analysis
It appears bettors weren’t as optimistic about the Sooners in this game as the odds makers were originally. We’ve seen BookMaker adjust the odds greatly. They opened at six points in favor of Oklahoma, but that’s since but cut in half, sitting at three. The total has lost some points dropping from 64.
Auburn did lose two more games than Oklahoma so the spread of nearly a touchdown seems reasonable in that sense, but this is a Tigers team that’s cover the spread in nine of their 12 games so it’s dangerous to give them too much rope.
The Sooners, by comparison, have only covered half of their games though they have covered three straight after a big win over Oklahoma State.
Matchup to Watch
Watching Baker Mayfield take on the Auburn defense will be a fun matchup and a crucial one to the outcome of this game.
Mayfield is a legit star in the game and an early Heisman favorite for next season. He can absolutely light up the opposing defense, but the Tigers are a tough customer. Auburn has bought into Kevin Steele’s defensive system and the team figures to lean heavily on a very strong pass rush to pressure Mayfield into a mistake or two.
Look for Carl Lawson to break through the offensive line a few times as he makes one final statement before joining the professional ranks.
Even with all the pressure, look for Mayfield to deliver. He’s got a plethora of targets to choose from and that’ll provide matchup challenges for the Tigers’ secondary.
In the end, Auburn ranks No. 5 in the nation in fewest points allowed, giving up 15.6 per game, but they do give up some yards in the air. It’s up to Mayfield to make them count and find Dede Westbrook, Joe Mixon or Mark Andrews in the end zone as he’s done so many times this year.
Overall, Mayfield has thrown for a staggering 3,669 yards and 38 touchdowns with just eight interceptions allowed. He’s been surprisingly accurate with a 71.2-percent completion mark.
Pressure from a strong Auburn defense should cause that completion percentage to be lower in this bowl game, but he’s still an accurate thrower that doesn’t figure to get too frazzled. After all, this is a team that is scoring 44.7 PPG that also boasts a running game that features Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine combining for 19 scores and netting seven and 5.4 yards per carry respectively.
Injury Report
Keep an eye on the health status of Sean White for the Tigers. Sure, the Auburn team is a defense-first squad, but if White is fully healthy this team can matchup with some of the better offenses, too.
White has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, but with him in there and healthy, the team had a nice stretch midseason scoring at least 38 in four straight games against some of their SEC foes.
Auburn has a run heavy offense ranked sixth in rushing yards per game thanks to Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson. That aspect of the game should continue to shine against Oklahoma. The passing attack, meanwhile, will look for a bump from White who has completed 65.2-percent of his passes.
Free ATS Pick
If you took advantage of the spread when it was up at six points, congratulations. This game will be close and it’s no surprise the spread shrunk quickly like it did.
White should play which brings the Auburn offense a lot closer to Oklahoma in terms of production and with the defensive edge that makes this a neck and neck game until the end.
Overall, look for the Sooners to get the win on the shoulders of Mayfield who can do enough things well to overcome the Tigers’ defense.
College Football Odds: Oklahoma 28, Auburn 24
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