Arizona State and Texas AM made over bettors plenty of coin last season with their explosive offenses. The Sun Devils ended 2014 with a 4-1 run on the total while the Aggies cashed the over in three of their final four to close the season. So the defenses better be ready when these schools meet for the first time ever, playing on a neutral field in Houston on Saturday.
ODDS
There has been no movement on this line since it opened at Texas AM -3. Arizona State is an underrated Pac-12 team and getting three points against a team the Sun Devils match up well against is a bargain. Though the game is being played in Texas, it is at a neutral site, so there is no homefield edge. The smart play is ASU and the points in this one. Early money was on the over, which opened at 66 and still has value after a spike to 70.
KEY MISMATCH
Arizona State Ground Game against Texas AM Rush Defense
Texas AM had one of the worst run defenses in college football last season. The Aggies allowed 216 ground yards per game and 5.01 yard per carry. Against Power Five opponents, those numbers ballooned to 255.3 per game and 5.8 a carry. The problems started up front, where the Aggies were often bullied and occasionally torn up. Opponents averaged 5.9 yards per carry on first down. The Aggies should improve thanks to new defensive coordinator John Chavis and a line that returns six of its top seven tacklers. But this is still the weakest part of the AM defense. Arizona State, which returns its three starting interior linemen, has the pieces to take advantage. Running back Demario Richard is exactly the type of back who gives this defense problems. He’s a physical, downhill runner who works well between the tackles Richard could have a big day behind a dominant line so look to play the over for his rush yards prop at BookMaker.
KEY STAT
+14 – Arizona State finished sixth in the country last season in turnover margin at plus-14. The Sun Devils were plus-18 in their 10 victories but had a minus-four margin in three losses. As the turnovers went, so went ASU. Texas AM was the opposite, finishing 107th in the country in turnover margin. Even in their wins the Aggies were a minus-one. Its 13 takeaways ranked 122nd in the country and 13th in the SEC.
BETTING ANGLE
Chavis will have to earn his big contract immediately. Arizona State returns seven offensive starters from a team that averaged 36.9 points, and that doesn’t include experienced quarterback Mike Bercovici. There’s a little coaching tie in here, so hang with me. Chavis came to the Aggies from LSU, where he built a reputation for coaching physical front lines. He also had success shutting down spread offenses. Last year his Tigers held the Aggies to 228 yards, 17 points and 4.75 yards per play. However, last year’s LSU defense surrendered 566 yards, 41 points and 7.65 yards per play against Auburn – the SEC offense most similar to that of Arizona State. Auburn coach Gus Malzahn was the offensive coordinator under ASU’s Todd Graham at Tulsa for two seasons. He and Graham are pals, and their offenses rely on the same high-tempo, spread the defense principles.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Aggies may not have the homefield advantage, but they will have the home crowd edge, playing just a 90 minute drive from College Station. And that likely means something in a game between teams that are separated by little in terms of talent. One area ASU has the upper hand is at quarterback with the veteran presence of Mark Bercovici. The Sun Devils nearly won a second straight title in a grueling Pac-12 South division and return 16 starters. Graham has a good thing going in Tempe and a victory over a quality opponent would certainly validate the team’s preseason ranking.
Arizona State 41, Texas AM 35
The college football lines for this contest were first released by BookMaker and the Aggies were positioned as 3-point favorites with a total of 66. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Arizona State Sun Devils and Texas AM Aggies square off on Saturday, September 5, 2015, at 7 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
