UCLA is up to No. 7 in the current Associated Press polls, and the Bruins are expected to keep rolling. The two most recent meetings between UCLA and Arizona State saw 71 and 89 points scored, and it looks like Arizona State is going to have trouble slowing the Bruins attack once again this season.
ODDS
UCLA is a 13-point favorite over Arizona State and the anticipated total is in the high 60s. There was however some buy-back from the opening line with the Bruins opening a 14-point home chalk.
KEY MISMATCH
UCLA’s balanced offensive attack against Arizona State’s defense:
The Bruins racked up 500 yards of offense last week rushing for over 210 yards and passing for another 284. Paul Perkins is one of the league’s best running backs and freshman quarterback Josh Rosen is running the offensive efficiently and effectively while growing into the position.
UCLA is the most balanced and powerful offense in the Pac-12 rushing for 234 yards per game and passing for 248 YPG. They have faced more capable defenses than ASU in wins over BYU and Virginia, and the Sun Devils defense travels after getting rolled by USC last week as ASU allowed 455 yards but was torched through the air for 379 passing yards at 11.1 yards per pass.
Recall the Sun Devils allowed 425 balanced yards to Texas A&M in an opening week loss, and UCLA is stronger this season. The Bruins destroyed the Sun Devils in Tempe last season 62-27 with nearly 600 yards of combined offense.
KEY STAT
Through four games, UCLA is averaging 38 points per game and allowing 18 PPG, while Arizona State is averaging 25 points per game and allowing 28 PPG.
The Sun Devils have allowed 7.4 yards per pass and eight passing touchdowns; both second-worst in the Pac-12.
BETTING ANGLE
The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last six October games, but 1-4 ATS in their last five Pac-12 games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games and the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
The over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Despite losing three key players on defense including star linebacker Miles Jack and cornerback Fabian Moreau, the Bruins rolled over Arizona last week 56-30.
The Sun Devils play their first true road game of the season and after getting torched by USC’s receivers last week, ASU now must deal with a fast and talented Bruins receiving corps led by senior Jordan Payton, who is Rosen’s top target with 19 receptions for 319 yards and three touchdowns.
Arizona State was overrated entering the season after over-achieving last year, and their breakdown in all phases against USC including special teams with poor kicking and punt return coverage are a concern. Traveling on the road against this UCLA team should prove most difficult.
UCLA’s pass efficiency defense is No. 1 in the Pac-12 and the Bruins are allowing just 50 percent completions. Arizona State is vulnerable in the secondary and that includes senior free safety Jordan Simone, who was repeatedly exposed in space against USC’s receivers.
UCLA has a bye on deck and will hold nothing back as they roll at home. While Arizona State and senior quarterback Mike Bercovici will have some success moving the ball against the injury-riddled Bruins defense, it won’t be enough to keep up with the Bruins.
UCLA 45, Arizona State 24
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