The Pac-12’s lone unbeaten looks to stay on course for a trip to the College Football Playoff when the Utah Utes welcome Arizona State to Salt Lake City. The Utes are coming off a pair of wins over ranked conference foes after knocking off Cal and Oregon in the last two weeks and take part in another marquee conference matchup. The winner will have the inside track to the Pac-12 South title and the Utes need to snap an 11-game losing streak to ASU to get the pole position.
ODDS
Utah opened as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 56. ASU backers will be glad to hear that the clubs is 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight October games, while Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference home games. The spread was wagered as high as -7.5 but settled back down to its opening number. The total spiked a half point to 56.5.
KEY MISMATCH
Utah has leaned on its defense all season, riding its accomplishments to the top of the Pac-12 South and a No. 4 ranking. The Utes have the best turnover margin per game at plus-2 and their 17 takeaways rank second nationally. They picked off Cal’s Jared Goff, considered one of the top quarterback prospects in college football, five times in last weekend’s win over the then-No. 23 Golden Bears. Turnover margin has always correlated to high levels of success. Oregon advanced to the CFP championship game last season with a nation-high plus-23 turnover margin. National champion Ohio State had the second-most interceptions in the country. The emphasis on takeaways has always been there for Utah, so it’s not a new development. It’s just paying off at an unexpected rate. The Utes have forced at least three turnovers in four of five games, including six against Cal, and average 3.4 per game. Utah’s defense made a statement the way it toyed with Goff, who had thrown only four picks in 178 attempts before the trip to Salt Lake City. The Utes were able to confuse a quarterback of Goff’s caliber by disguising their coverages.
KEY STAT
+2.0 – Utah is in a three-way tie for the national lead in turnover margin per game. The Utes are plus-10 overall, rank tied for second with 17 takeaways, and tied for third with 12 interceptions. Arizona State has a minus-2 turnover margin and has coughed up the football 11 times.
BETTING ANGLE
Arizona State turned the ball over nine times in the first four games but had just one each in wins at then-No. 7 UCLA and Colorado. If the Sun Devils are to keep the momentum going, they’ll have to play better than they did the past two weeks. “We feel this is going to be a week that defines us as a program and as a brotherhood,” quarterback Mike Bercovici said. The back-to-back victories put ASU back in position to reach one of its goals, winning the Pac-12 South. But to do that, the Sun Devils will need to beat Utah and keep playing well the rest of the season. Arizona State defeated the Utes in overtime last season in Tempe and has won 11 straight meetings, but Utah is a better team this season and will be playing at home. The Utes are suddenly the chic pick to click, climbing up the rankings and even into the national championship conversation. But coach Kyle Whittingham might be wise to ban his players from reading the press clippings, because the hype can only hurt.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Utes’ ball-hawking defense has put them in a good position to carry the torch for the Pac-12 Conference. As good as the D has been at stopping opponents and creating turnovers, the offense has, for the most part, sputtered. A heavy dose of Devontae Booker has kept the chains moving and set up enough opportunities to score points. Some might say the Utes got a little lucky last week. Forcing six Cal turnovers should have turned the game into a wipeout, but the Utes barely squeezed by. Now Utah faces a wily veteran in Bercovici, who’s not the gun slinger Goff is, but he’s steady and playing his best football heading into this one. The conference is loaded with good teams and they knock each other off at every turn. Watch for ASU to hold onto the ball, limit Booker’s yards and force quarterback Travis Wilson into a few costly mistakes. Utah also has an 11-game losing streak to ASU playing with their heads. I like the Sun Devils to get a big upset on the road.
Arizona State 27, Utah 24
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Utah -6.5 with a total of 56. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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