The Ole Miss Rebels are still the fly in the ointment for the College Football Playoff per se, as they still control their destiny in the SEC West.
They've got what is expected to be a relatively easy game on Saturday at home against the Arkansas Razorbacks.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Ole Miss was crushed in this game last year 30-0 in Fayetteville, but that isn't stopping the oddsmakers from favoring it by a healthy margin at -11 in this one. The Rebs, of course, know that all of their dreams this year of being a team in the SEC Championship Game and potentially a New Year's Six bowl game are on the line each and every week, as one slip, and it's off something like the Outback Bowl.
The total for this one is set at 55.5 after opening at 53.5.
KEY MISMATCH
The Hogs lost Rawleigh Williams III to a scary neck injury last week, ending his NCAA season. Now, we're not sure where Bret Bielema is going to turn in his backfield beyond Alex Collins. This offense is best run when there are multiple backs capable of running the ball, but now, it's all up to Collins.
The Ole Miss defensive line is one of the most ferocious in the nation, and that could make for a long day for Collins. It's not when Collins is out there that we're worried. It's when he's on the bench and either Brandon Allen is forced to throw it or someone else has to have the rock in their hands.
KEY STAT
4.6 – The number of points per game the Razorbacks have allowed this year in the first quarters of games. Ole Miss has a history of putting games away early on, and the Hogs are going to have no choice but to keep this one close early or risk getting taken to the woodshed.
BETTING ANGLE
The Rebels might have a high-flying offense, but they haven't ultimately proven to be great for over bettors. They're 5-0 in their last five for under backers, and for the most part, the totals haven't been all that close.
That said, keep in mind that Arkansas has played consecutive over games in a big way, putting up a total of 117 points in games against Tennessee-Martin and Auburn in successive weeks to end October.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Allen is an improved passer this year, but this offense is still only at its best when it is grounding and pounding with Collins.
It just isn't a good matchup against Robert Nkemdiche and the front seven for the Rebs which has allowed just 3.1 yards per carry.
The end result is going to be a blowout as we see it. The Rebels have quietly been awfully strong at home, beating Texas A&M by 20 and New Mexico State by 49 since losing to Florida down in the Swamp.
If they can get their offense going in this game early as we suspect they will, they'll run away from the Razorbacks and get themselves ready for their showdown with LSU in two weeks which could ultimately decide the SEC West title.
Ole Miss 45, Arkansas 17
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