The Jaguars will host a Red Wolves squad that’s 0-2 on the road this year.
Arkansas State, however, has beaten South Alabama SU in each of their last three meetings and both of their last two ATS.
ODDS
The head-to-head trends support Arkansas State in this one. Last year the Red Wolves won by five touchdowns, 45-10. Of course, the year prior, it was a much closer 17-16. Both years, however, the Red Wolves beat the spread.
History is a pretty good indicator, but it’s not everything. We tend to focus on trends, but in this one, one trend or another has got to give.
Over their last five road games, the Red Wolves are 0-5 ATS meanwhile in their last eight home games, the Jaguars are just 1-7 ATS. South Alabama is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games, but Arkansas State is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven conference games.
The visitors have been lined as 6-point favorites to kick off Week 7 on the college gridiron.
KEY MISMATCH
Neither of these teams are amongst the sports’ best in any facet of the game, but the Red Wolves have been above average on the ground, rushing for 192.8 yards per game and scoring 13 touchdowns on the ground in just five games.
The team’s running attack is headed by running back Michael Gordon who has 455 yards and five touchdowns. Of course, he’s not alone as two others have already topped 200 yards through the first five games with Warren Wand and Johnston White combining for seven additional touchdowns.
Arkansas State’s running numbers are partly due to the effectiveness of their running backs and their offensive line. The three backs listed above each have 5.4 yards a carry or more. That said, the team’s running numbers are also partly a result of their struggles in the air.
The Red Wolves yardage in the air is reasonable, but the team’s quarterbacks have combined for a 6:9 touchdown to interception ratio.
The Red Wolves should be able to run all over South Alabama. The Jaguars rank No. 102 in the nation in rush defense, allowing 204.8 rushing yards per game. They’ve also allowed 12 rushing touchdowns.
KEY STAT
.357 – This is the percentage of red zone opportunities that the Jaguars have converted into touchdowns. Overall, in 14 chances, South Alabama has managed just five touchdowns and five field goals, failing completely to put any points on the board four separate times.
On the other side of the field, the Red Wolves haven’t been great in the red zone either failing to score on four different occasions, but have reached the end zone in 12 of 18 red zone chances.
BETTING ANGLE
The Red Wolves have had the upper hand head-to-head against their Sun Belt conference foes.
Last year was a particularly dominating year for Arkansas State over South Alabama, of course, the Red Wolves were at home. The year prior they won by a single point at Ladd-Peebles Stadium.
In last year’s game, quarterback Fredi Knighten carried this team. He threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for a team leading 80 yards on 14 carries. He also ran for a touchdown. The now-senior quarterback was the team’s starter before a groin injury knocked him out. He’s questionable for Tuesday.
Knighten’s first two games this year before the injury weren’t that great. He completed only 41.3% of his passes, but his replacement, James Tabary lacks the running ability of Knighten and has thrown six interceptions.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Red Wolves are a better team historically and have owned this matchup since these teams began playing each other in 2013.
Even with Knighten on the shelf, the Red Wolves’ running game should be able to produce against South Alabama’s below-average run defense. The passing game and defense, however, are key concerns.
Despite that, the Jaguars were able to remain in the game the last time they hosted the Red Wolves. Arkansas State was also destroyed in the at USC who beat them 55-6 and, and perhaps more telling, lost at Toledo 37-7. The Red Wolves need to prove they can win on the road before I even entertain the thought of laying points with them as visitors.
With Knighten out and the turnover-happy Tabary likely under center, I’m going with the home team to pull out the narrow victory.
South Alabama 28, Arkansas State 24
The college football lines for this contest were first released by BookMaker and Arkansas State was positioned as 6-point favorites. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Arkansas State Red Wolves and South Alabama Jaguars square off on Tuesday, October 13, 2015, at 8 p.m. ET at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. You can watch the game live on ESPN2.
