USC has gotten the royal treatment this summer. Mentioned in national championship talk the Trojans are a stacked team and now get a chance to live up to the hype. It’s also a chance to talk about something other than head coach Steve Sarkisian’s poor judgment. Cody Kessler also gets a head start in the Heisman race facing Arkansas State in the opener Saturday night. A favorite out of the Sun Belt Conference, the Red Wolves will take their lumps but will be battle-tested once conference play begins.
ODDS
USC opened as a 28-point favorite against the Red Wolves. The Trojans have a full deck now out of the dark shadow that was the Pete Carroll era, and players buried on the depth chart will get a chance. That’s why a four touchdown spread is a lot to cover. Plus, the Red Wolves have weapons of their own offensively and won’t lay down here. The total came in at 66 and has since spiked to 70. That number still has value with plenty of points on the field.
KEY MISMATCH
USC Quarterback Cody Kessler against Arkansas State Secondary
Kessler put up ridiculous numbers last season, setting USC records for touchdown passes and completion percentage. And that’s something given the great quarterbacks the Trojans have churned out in the past. He excelled against non-conference opponents, throwing for an average of 351 yards with 17 touchdowns and just one pick in four games against non-Pac-12 teams. Kessler has a chance to get an early jump in the Heisman race by putting up some numbers against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State is a favorite in the Sun Belt Conference, but they haven’t faced a team as loaded as the Trojans. The Red Wolves have a pair of quality edge rushers, but their back seven has a new look, which is troubling facing USC. Kessler should have little trouble finding receiver JuJu Smith and carving up the Arkansas State secondary in the process.
KEY STAT
4.72 – The Red Wolves defense yielded a whooping 4.72 yards per carry last season, which was 90th in the country. They run different packages out of their base set to disturb opposing offenses, which has worked. But it also leaves them susceptible to the big play. And USC has big play makers.
BETTING ANGLE
A former quarterback at the college and professional level, USC head coach Steve Sarkisian knows offense. He was the Trojans’ offensive coordinator during his first stint at Troy. So you know how difficult the decision must have been for him to relinquish play calling duties to his offensive coordinator Clay Helton, who’s been on the Trojans staff since 2010. Last season USC averaged 35.8 points per game, tied for the 23rd-most in the country. They finished 34th in total offense. The decision was likely made easier by Helton’s relationship with quarterback Cody Kessler. Helton recruited Kessler, snatching him away from Washington when Sarkisian was the coach, molding him into the record-breaking QB he is now. With Helton calling the plays, he expects another banner year for a player he feels he’s “been with” for seven years, ever since the recruiting process began.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Red Wolves are a solid non-Power Five team and are considered a favorite to claim the Sun Belt Conference. But USC is in another league – literally and figuratively. Kessler is a strong Heisman hopeful after tossing the ball all over the yard last season. Sure some weapons are gone, most notably Nelson Agholor and Buck Allen, both of whom will be playing on Sundays this year. But those skill positions are filled rather easily at USC and there is no shortage of talent to pick up the slack. USC is a little thin on the defensive front and the Red Wolves will exploit that weakness with their up-tempo, no-huddle offense led by Sun Belt Player of the Year candidate quarterback Fredi Knighten. Arkansas State won’t outscore USC, but they’ll get enough on the board to cover and cash the over.
USC 49, Arkansas State 27
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at USC -28 with a total of 66. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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