Air Force will bring its dominant running game to Amon G. Carter Stadium looking to beat California for the first time since 2002.
While they're a solid 8-5 on the season, the Falcons are only 2-5 on the road.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Air Force Falcons +6
California Golden Bears -6
Over/Under 63
ODDS ANALYSIS
California's edge has grown, according to the spread, since the odds were released as it's grown now to 7-points in the Golden Bears' favor. The total has seen much more movement with it jumping up five points to 68.
In the Air Force's last four games, the over has paid out each time. It's also 6-2 in the Bears' last eight Bowl Games.
California is 1-5 ATS in its last six games while the Falcons are 6-1 in their last seven.
KEY MISMATCH
The Golden Bears defense ranks No. 110 in total yards allowed per game at 455.3 and No. 88 in scoring defense, allowing 30.2 PPG.
The worse part of California's defense is its struggles against the rush, allowing 203.5 rushing yards per game. That could be a huge issue against the Air Force who own the nation's second most prolific rushing attack, averaging 322.1 rushing yards per game.
The key for California will be to try and keep the Falcons in passing situations. They'll still run more often than not, but quarterback Karson Roberts isn't equipped to make big plays with his arm. He's only got 1,446 passing yards this season and a 9:10 touchdown to interception ratio.
On the ground, however, Roberts can run with the ball. He has 674 yards on 152 carries and nine scores. In addition to him, Air Force has a number of other options, too, including Jacobi Owens who leads the team with 1,013 yards.
There are seven Falcons with at least 320 rushing yards and four more with at least 100. The team has plenty of depth and diversity in the offense even without putting the ball in the air.
KEY STAT
.461 - Few teams can top the Golden Bears' 46 percent conversion rate on third down as California ranks No. 16 in that category in the nation. Of course, the Falcons weren't too bad on third downs themselves, converting 42.7 percent of the time.
Defensively, California is allowing its opposition to convert at a 42.6 percent clip on third downs. Air Force, meanwhile, is much better defensively, holding the competition to a 35.3 percent success rate.
BETTING ANGLE
We're looking at an offensive battle in this game with the Air Force's stacked running game and strong offensive front against the Golden Bears' aerial attack.
California has the fourth ranked passing attack in the nation thanks to quarterback Jared Goff. The star quarterback ranks fifth in the nation with 37 touchdown passes.
In his last game of the regular season, Goff threw for a staggering 542 yards and five touchdowns in an impressive victory over Arizona State. That came on the heels of a 452 yard and six touchdown effort the week prior.
Goff is on a roll and will look to maintain his streak against a good, but not great Air Force defense.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Look for a high scoring game with the Air Force running an effective ground game against the Bears' porous defense.
Still, I'm not convinced that'll be enough against California and, most notably, Goff.
Look for the star quarterback to have a huge game in his final hurrah at the collegiate level. The Air Force running game could be in for a big performance, too, but look for the Golden Bears to produce enough for the win, though beating the spread will be tough.
California 38, Air Force 30
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