A game that had much more significance before the season began now has teams simply fighting for bowl eligibility. Arkansas has underwhelmed this season and needs a win to entertain any real hope of going bowling. Auburn has shown signs of life with back-to-back wins, but hasn’t been good to its supporters, going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games.
ODDS
Arkansas opened as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 48. While Auburn has the better record, the Tigers have been more of a disappointment this season; a big reason why the line was wagered to -6.5. The total spiked to 51 and has some value with teams that have given up plenty of big plays this year.
KEY MISMATCH
The first quarter of Auburn’s win over Kentucky was vintage work from a Gus Malzahn coached unit. Auburn hit the Wildcats for big plays downfield, converted crucial third-downs and got on the scoreboard first for a change. Although the great start turned into a rather ugly third quarter, quarterback Sean White and the offense need a repeat performance of that first half. Big plays are out there – Arkansas has allowed 8.58 yards per pass attempt in the first half this season. And the Razorbacks’ defense has allowed the second-most plays of 30 or more yards in the SEC. To the surprise of many White got the nod last week over Jeremy Johnson and played well in his first career road game. He’s taking care of the football and leading Malzahn’s offense in its most explosive performances of an otherwise quiet season. Winning back-to-back road games in the SEC is a difficult task, but White has shown he’s capable of helping Auburn turn its season around with his arm.
KEY STAT
64.0 – Arkansas’ red zone scoring percentage. The Razorbacks have ruined many good possessions by converting just 16 of 25 red zone trips into points. Auburn allows opponents to score 80.77 percent of the time when driving inside the Tigers 20 yards line.
BETTING ANGLE
Records can be deceiving, and this matchup is proof of that. Auburn has a better record than Arkansas, but the 2-4 Razorbacks opened as a 5.5-point favorite at BookMaker, and that number is climbing. There is a reason for that. Arkansas has seemed to bounce back after two bad losses to Toledo and Texas Tech by taking a great Texas AM team to overtime on the road, beating Tennessee in Knoxville and hanging with Alabama for most of the game two weeks ago. That, plus the homefield advantage, gives the Razorbacks the edge. Both teams have issues, but the contest favors Arkansas’ offense, which should be able to wear down Auburn’s defense as the game goes on. Auburn has a chance if it gets an early lead and avoids the mid-game lull that has plagued them much of the season. Auburn is 1-5 ATS this season and covered for the first time last week, beating Kentucky by three as a 2-point favorite.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Arkansas desperately needs a win to rekindle any thoughts of even being eligible for a bowl game. The Hogs get a break with four of their last six at home, but the two roadies are killers going to Ole Miss and LSU, meaning a loss to the Tigers likely ends any bowl hopes. The Razorbacks are coming off a bye and should at least be well rested for this matchup. Arkansas has shown the ability to move the ball, averaging 435.5 yards of offense per game, but the Hogs have blown numerous chances this season when getting close to the opponent’s end zone. Their inability to produce touchdowns, let alone points, has been troublesome. Both teams will run the ball well, that’s what they do, but Arkansas will win the passing game behind Brandon Allen and control the clock. It’s not going to pretty, but the Razorbacks aren’t playing for style points. They’re desperate and get a much needed win.
Arkansas 31, Auburn 28
BookMaker opened the spread for this game at -5.5 in favor of the Razorbacks. The NCAA lines total surfaced at 48. Now you can wager in-game while the action unfolds with BookMaker's live betting option.
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone or tablet with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The matchup between the Auburn Tigers and Arkansas Razorbacks will take place Saturday, October 24, 2015, at 12 p.m. ET at Razorback Stadium. The contest will be broadcast live on the SEC Network.
