This is about the time of year Kentucky fans turn their attention to the upcoming basketball season. Not this season. With a near disaster behind them, the Wildcats enter Thursday’s game against the mysterious and struggling Auburn Tigers with an opportunity to stay close in the SEC East title race, though they did already lose to Florida. But as we’ve seen in the SEC this season, anything can happen.
ODDS
Auburn opened as a 2-point favorite with no total posted as of this writing. The Tigers have been a disaster for bettors, failing to cover in all five games this season and going 0-10 ATS dating back to last year.
KEY MISMATCH
We may never know what issues Kentucky’s Boom Williams was dealing with that led to him not playing in the team’s last game. But the running back said that all of it is behind him as the Wildcats prepare to face Auburn. Williams was a cheerleader on the sidelines during UK’s overtime win over Eastern Kentucky, and his absence on the field showed, especially in the first half, as the Wildcats rushed for just 23 yards. Kentucky finished the game with 55 yards rushing and avoided a huge upset to the FCS Colonels. The personal issues now behind him after the team’s bye week, Williams is ready to go, according to coach Mark Stoops. Williams leads the Wildcats with 343 yards and a touchdown on 47 carries and is vital to UK’s hopes for beating Auburn. He’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry, third-best in the SEC, and his 85.8 yards per game is ninth-best in the conference. Auburn is at the bottom of the SEC and among the worst in the nation in yards allowed on the ground per game at 209.6. The Tigers are giving up 5.2 yards per carry and have yielded 11 rushing touchdowns, most in the conference.
KEY STAT
100.0 – Kentucky’s red zone conversion rate. The Wildcats have scored 12 touchdowns and four field goals in their 16 red zone trips this season, and have converted their last 26 tries dating back to last season.
BETTING ANGLE
Auburn is trying to avoid a similar fate this season that it experienced in 2012. Once again the Tigers have off-the-field trouble and a highly-touted quarterback who struggled badly. Both teams were two years removed from playing for a national championship and coming off 8-5 seasons. There’s a lot of football left to avoid a similarly miserable ending to that 3-9 team that didn’t win an SEC game. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sean White has started the last two games and coach Guz Malzahn reopened the competition during the bye week. The open week started poorly when Malzahn dismissed starting receiver D’haquille Williams, who had been suspended multiple times. Auburn’s slide started late last season. The Tigers have won one of their last seven games against teams from Power 5 conferences, beating Louisville in the opener. A bowl berth remains far from assured for a team that mostly hasn’t been able to stop the run of get going offensively.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Kentucky needs the good Patrick Towles to show up against Auburn. The quarterback was sensational against Missouri and awful in the Wildcats’ only loss this season to Florida. He had a nice game in a comeback win over Eastern Kentucky completing 29 of 42 attempts for 329 yards and three touchdowns, but was picked off twice. Having Boom Williams back will definitely help the run game. He sat out against EKU and the Wildcats managed just 55 yards on the ground against the FCS Colonels. If those two are on their game, there’s no reason why the Wildcats can’t pull the upset. Auburn’s defense continues to be a sieve and the offense is one-dimensional with Peyton Barber doing most of the damage. It looks like Malzahn might be going back to Jeremy Johnson at quarterback to see if time on the bench cleared his head. Kentucky will be an inspired group playing before a full house and that will be enough to help them get a win.
Kentucky 31, Auburn 26
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Auburn -2 while the total has yet to hit the board. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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