The No. 18 Auburn Tigers will have to play much better if they want to knock of No. 13 LSU on the road, much less contend in the SEC as many predicted. Confidence in Auburn has been shaken after a narrow escape in overtime last week against FCS Jacksonville State, which followed a 7-point victory over winless Louisville. The SEC West showdown is LSU’s first game in Death Valley this season.
ODDS
LSU opened as a 7-point favorite with a total of 52.5. The spread has since dropped to -6.5 while the total tumbled to 48 after both teams struggled last week. Auburn in particular had a difficult time, scoring just 27 points with seven coming in overtime. LSU’s ground and pound attack will limit possessions, giving plenty of value to the under even at its reduced number.
KEY MISMATCH
Auburn’s struggles with dual threat quarterbacks the last few seasons have been well documented, and they continue to hamper the Tigers. Auburn couldn’t contain Louisville’s Lamar Jackson in the opener, watching the freshman dance around the defense on his scrambles and read-options for 106 yards on 16 carries. Jacksonville State’s Eli Jenkins didn’t have as many rushing yards due to some big sacks, but Auburn had difficulty stopping the read-option even when they knew it was coming. This week Auburn faces another dual-threat quarterback in LSU’s Brandon Harris, who was greatly improved from his start against Auburn last season. LSU ran the zone read 11 times for 45 yards against Mississippi State and Harris should get plenty of reps running the ball with Leonard Fournette against an Auburn team that has surrendered 239 yards against that play in the first two weeks.
KEY STAT
-3 – Auburn’s turnover margin. Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson has thrown five interceptions this season and several others were dropped, or that number could be even higher. LSU has not turned the ball over this season or registered a takeaway.
BETTING ANGLE
Quarterback Brandon Harris and the LSU Tigers have a shot at redemption. Harris’ second college start went much better than his first and the sophomore gets a crack at the team he faced in his disastrous debut last season. His stats last week weren’t spectacular – he passed for just 71 yards – but his play was solid and helped LSU get a big season-opening win at Mississippi State. Harris completed 9 of 14 attempts, didn’t turn the ball over, hit a few passes early and ran five times for 48 yards to loosen the Bulldog’s defense. That created room for Leonard Fournette to run for 158 yards and three scores. Harris gets his first start in Tiger Stadium this week against an Auburn team that abused him last season. He was just 3 for 14 passing for 58 yards in a 41-7 loss. It also proves to be LSU’s home opener after the game with McNeese State two weeks ago was cancelled due to severe weather.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The continued development of Harris makes LSU a threat in the SEC West. Bundled with Heisman hopeful Fournette, the Tigers have a devastating backfield that runs behind an offensive line that could be the best in the SEC. But once again coach Les Miles refuses to open the play book and his conservative calls nearly cost him a game in Starkville. The Bayou Bengals lack depth on defense and if the offense fails to sustain drives, the group will get worn down like last week. If Johnson doesn’t turn the ball over and some injured Auburn defenders are able to contribute, the orange and blue Tigers have a shot at pulling off the upset. However, their play against Jacksonville State leaves me worried and I have to go with the home Tigers in a typical SEC West meat-grinder game.
LSU 27, Auburn 20
The college football odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The LSU Tigers were pegged as 7-point chalk while the total opened at 52.5. Minute-by-minute spreads, totals and props are available for this game using the live betting platform at BookMaker.
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