Ranked at the bottom of the Top-25, Texas A&M has had the better season, but back-to-back losses to Alabama and Ole Miss have taken their toll. The Aggies, however, rebounded with a win over South Carolina their last time out while Auburn has dropped two straight and four of six.
ODDS
The Aggies were listed as 7.5-point favorites and that number has so far remained stagnant. The total, however, opened at 56 before bumping up to 59.5.
Even with the increase, the over is still a viable option as its 3-0-2 in the Tigers’ last five road games and 11-5-1 in their last 17 conference games. Meanwhile, the over has paid out in four of the Aggies last five home games.
Against the spread, Auburn has been struggling. They’re 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games and 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road though the Aggies are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 conference games.
KEY MISMATCH
Offensively, the Aggies haven’t exactly lived up to expectations, particularly on the ground. They’re averaging 32.1 PPG and rank No. 44 nationwide in yards per game at 431.8, but haven’t really stood out. They also scored just three points in their loss to Ole Miss on October 24 and had just 23-points in their loss to Alabama before that.
Other than those games, however, Texas A&M’s offense has been pretty good and they returned to form against South Carolina on Halloween.
Texas A&M put up 35-points against the Gamecocks and did much of that damage on the ground.
Freshman quarterback Kyler Murray had a huge game, running for 223 yards on 20 carries and it was an even split on carries with senior running back Tra Carson who added 122 yards.
Murray has taken over under center for Kyle Allen and provides a unique skill set that could cause Auburn problems. The Tigers will need to stop the rushing attack and force Murray to throw the ball. He’s been okay in the air, but not nearly as dynamic as he was on the ground against the Gamecocks.
Auburn has struggled to defend dual-threat quarterbacks all year and has also really struggled with the outside run. The success of Louisville QB Lamar Jackson against them is just one example.
Turnovers have been the Tigers lone saving grace on defense and Murray helps solidify ball security for the Aggies as well.
KEY STAT
.419 – This is the third down conversion percentage for the Aggies on the season. On the flip side, the Tigers have really struggled to force the punt on third down, allowing the opposition to convert over 46% of the time to rank No. 114 in the nation.
BETTING ANGLE
Auburn is going through a period of rebuilding as the team is 4-4 SU, but just 2-6 ATS. They’ve had issues on both sides of the ball, getting outscored by an average of 2.2 PPG, ranking No. 82 in offensive scoring and No. 85 in points allowed.
In their 27-19 loss to Ole Miss, they weren’t able to do much on offense. They scored 19, but were just 2-for-15 on third downs and were often forced to kick field goals when in the red zone instead of putting seven points on the board.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Sean White played through a bum knee on Saturday for Auburn and should be able to practice and play against the Aggies. If he’s healthier, that should help the Tigers’ offense, but likely not enough to overtake Texas A&M, but they may be able to cover the college football spread.
Murray really provided a spark to the Aggies’ offense against South Carolina and Texas A&M will look to carry that energy over to their matchup with Auburn. Given the Tigers’ struggles against mobile quarterbacks I expect more success for Murray, but Auburn has been able to force turnovers which could help keep the game closer.
Texas A&M was also unable to pull away from South Carolina when they had the chance.
Texas A&M 30, Auburn 24
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