Louisville has a chance to make a statement in its opener, for itself and the ACC. Coach Bobby Petrino has started strong in his second go around with the program, winning nine games last season and improving the overall collection of talent. With an upset of Auburn Saturday on CBS in a neutral site matchup, the Cardinals will send a strong message that Florida State and Clemson will have company in the ACC title chase.
ODDS
Auburn opened as 10.5-point chalk in this neutral site contest with a total of 56. The Tigers were just 4-9 ATS last season and ended the year going 1-7 ATS in their final eight games. Louisville is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with SEC teams.
KEY MISMATCH
Auburn Defense against Louisville Offensive Line
Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp is salivating over the chance to face a Louisville offensive line that returns just one starter. His Tigers should enjoy a considerable advantage at the point of attack, especially with the return of stud defensive end Carl Lawson, who missed all of last season with an injury and will have an opportunity to make a huge difference in his return. Muschamp has thoroughbreds all over his defense and he won’t be bashful about dialing up different coverages and blitz packages to try and confuse Louisville’s new group of O-linemen. He also won’t be bashful about unleashing linebackers Cassanova McKinzy and Kris Frost to further confound the Cards’ new blockers.
KEY STAT
Auburn’s defense really struggled over the final eight games last season, allowing more than 30 points in all but one of those games while going 3-5 SU. The Tigers were torched for 55 in a loss to Alabama in the Iron Bowl and the only time they held an opponent under 30 was against Samford. Their inability to get to the quarterback was partly to blame. Auburn ranked 94th in the nation with 21 sacks in 13 games and also had the 69th ranked rush defense. Enter former Florida coach Will Muschamp as the new defensive coordinator, and with him on board the Tigers’ pass rush and run defense should be improved. How much remains to be seen.
BETTING ANGLE
The Tigers’ best seasons recently have come when they entered the season under the national radar. Not this year. The challenge this season won’t be trying to prove doubters wrong, rather living up to the high expectations of a team ranked No. 6 and picked by several so-called experts as the favorite to win the Southeastern Conference. Head coach Gus Malzahn has been a part of two Auburn teams that have been to the national championship game, in 2010 as offensive coordinator and 2013 as head coach. The 2010 team entered at No. 22, and Auburn wasn’t ranked opening the season two years ago. The Tigers started out last season ranked fifth and went 8-5, blowing up in the second half when they were 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Auburn has a collection of talent that many pundits predict will win the SEC. Even to be considered among that conference’s elite says a lot about your program since the SEC is widely considered the strongest in college football. And this isn’t empty talk either, the Tigers are loaded and the only thing that can slow them down is their schedule. Auburn will be breaking in several new starters on offense, including quarterback Jeremy Johnson, but Malzahn’s coaching genius on that side of the ball should mitigate any problems the newcomers might face. And defensively, the Tigers should be much improved under new DC Will Muschamp and they will stymie a Louisville offense transitioning a new O-line.
Auburn 38, Louisville 23
BookMaker sent out the college football spread for this game at Auburn -10.5 with a total of 56. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, total and spread. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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