In what will amount to a home game for the Central Florida Knights, UCF will more or less host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Orlando for the AutoNation Cure Bowl on Saturday evening. While not the most glamourous bowl, neither team thought they’d be here early in the year after UCF’s dismal 2015 performance and Arkansas State’s rocky start.
Kickoff for this AutoNation Cure Bowl game is set for Saturday, December 17, 2016, at 5:30 p.m. ET at Camping World Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas State
Central Floirda
Odds Analysis
BookMaker odds haven’t been released for this meeting, but looked for UCF to be favored by upwards of a touchdown.
UCF had quite the bounce back year to get back into a bowl game after a winless season a year ago. They’re still a flawed team with concerns and inconsistencies on offense in particular, but they’ve been a solid bet this year, going 8-4 ATS.
Of course, the more recent trends are a bit less optimistic as the Knights have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games. Arkansas State, meanwhile, has a similar story over their last two games. They’re 6-6 ATS on the year, but did have a six game winning streak both SU and ATS prior to their last two matchups.
Matchup to Watch
The biggest piece to the turnaround season for the Knights has been the defense which has been solid, allowing just 24.1 points per game.
The pass rush, in particular, has thrived. The team is allowed just 200.4 passing yards per game thanks to plenty of regular pressure on the QB. Much of that pressure can be attributed to Shaquem Griffin. The talented linebacker has 11 sacks and 85 tackles. It’s no wonder he was dubbed the conference’s top defensive player.
He’ll match up against Justice Hansen who has the Sun Belt’s best QB rating. He’s been efficient in his 2,514 passing yards and 16 scores. He fronts an average offense that’s pass heavy so the strong pass defense for UCF against the pass offense will be a key matchup to watch on a more macro scale while Hansen vs. Griffin is the paring on a player-to-player scale.
Hansen will move out the pocket some when needed, but doesn’t have the wheels to generate anything consistently with his legs. If UCF can drop him in the back field a few times and cause issues, the Red Wolves may have to go more with the rushing attack which was ranked in the bottom third in the league. Warren Wand isn’t a bad player and has rushed for 867 yards and seven scores, but he’s more of a complimentary piece.
Look for Griffin and the Knights to be aggressive early to try and get into Hansen’s head. If success, the Knights get the win. If Hansen can exploit their aggressiveness early and get the early lead, this could go a different way.
Revenge Angle
There’s not a revenge angle head-to-head, but both teams had a couple hiccups at the end of the regular season and will be looking to cap off their 2016 campaigns on a positive note.
That may be especially true for Scott Frost’s crew out of UCF. The Knights’ coach may not be long for the role with the job he was able to do turning around this program in a single season. That’s another revenge angle right there for UCF as they are still out to prove that 2015’s winless campaign is well behind them. A winning season capped by a bowl victory would be a huge statement win for them.
On the flip side, Arkansas State’s overcome a 0-4 start with a 7-1 finish. They’ll end the year over .500 regardless of the results of this game.
Free ATS Pick
The home-field edge swings the odds in the UCF’s favor, but don’t be surprised if the Red Wolves get the win behind a bend-but-don’t-break defense.
Straight up, I still favor the Knights, but with a handful of points on the side of Arkansas State, look for the Red Wolves to cover the spread. If the spread is narrower, however, jump on the side of UCF.
In the end, look for a big sack from Griffin on a key late game drive to put the nail in the coffin for Arkansas State and give the victory to a UCF team that leans on its defense to prop up the offense that gets just enough from McKenzie Milton, Jawon Hamilton and company.
College Football Odds: Central Florida 28, Arkansas State 23
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