Baylor’s potent offense will have a new director in Seth Russell, but the production shouldn’t slack with a pair of 1,000-yard receivers. Running back Shock Linwood, who gained over 1,200 yards, also returns to operate behind an O-line that is intact.
The Bears have won 11 straight over SMU, covering the spread in the last five.
ODDS
Baylor opened as a 34-point favorite with a total of 73.5. The Bears covered the spread last season, beating SMU 45-0 while laying 31.5 points, and went 4-1 ATS in games they were favored by 30 or more points. Over bettors won’t get much help from the Mustangs and it’s unlikely the Bears drop 74 on them.
KEY MISMATCH
The entire game is a mismatch for the underdog Mustangs. Baylor led the country in offense last season and returns nine starters from a team that amassed better than 530 yards a game and 48.2 points. The Bears are also stout defensively with nine starters returning on that side of the ball, including the Big 12’s Defensive Player of the Year Shawn Oakman. An experienced defensive line, that rotates five players, has combined for 33.5 career sacks and held opponents to 3.1 yards per rush last season. SMU looks for some improvement in its offense that ranked last nationally in scoring with 11.1 points per game and second to last in total offense with 269 yards a contest.
KEY STAT
Baylor led the nation in yards per game and scoring last season, and while some may predict a decrease in production with Bryce Petty graduated, think again. Petty guided the Bears offense that led the nation with averages of 48.2 points and 581.5 yards last year with Seth Russell as his understudy. Russell will make his second start for the fourth-ranked Bears on Thursday. In his only start last season he threw for 438 yards and five touchdowns – in one half. That performance and a strong offseason have the Bears believing there won’t be a huge drop-off at quarterback.
BETTING ANGLE
Baylor owns the recent series with SMU, winning the last 11 meetings and covering the spread in its last five matchups. We fully expect the Bears to extend at least one of those streaks when they visit Dallas to take on their former Southwestern Conference rival. Baylor returns 18 starters from last year’s Big 12 title team that just missed making the first ever College Football Playoff. Quarterback Bryce Petty is gone, but not to worry, this team is still a monster. The Bears beat the Mustangs in Waco last season 45-0, outgaining them by over 500 yards and covering as 34-point favorites. Most signs point to something similar happening.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
SMU is operating under a new coaching regime after the 1-11 mess last season. But there is optimism surrounding the program. The Mustangs return 16 starters with nine of those on offense, including last year’s starting quarterback Matt Davis and the entire offensive line. But we’re not sure if that’s a good thing after the unit stunk last year. Outside of a minor miracle, the Mustangs will not win this game. But staying close will build the program for the remainder of the season. I just don’t think they have the horses, though. Baylor is armed at making a run for the College Football Playoff after getting left out last season, and with a weak non-conference slate, a closer than expected game could cost them votes with the committee.
Baylor 48, SMU 10
The college football lines for this contest were first released by BookMaker and the Bears were positioned as 34-point favorites with a total of 73.5. Gamble on the game between every commercial break with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen on the next play or how many points will be scored in the next quarter. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The Baylor Bears and SMU Mustangs square off on Friday, September 4, 2015, at 7 p.m. ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
